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Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 07:04

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MODULECONSTRUCTION, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with DRAGON'S LUCK second and SUPER HIGHWAY third. The 2.2 favourite DRAGON'S LUCK finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 MODULECONSTRUCTION TT 1.08.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 3.5 SH
2 1 DRAGON'S LUCK Z Purton · D J Whyte 2 2.2 SH
3 10 SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 15.0 3-1/4
4 2 MAGNIAC V/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 8 19.0 3-1/4
5 9 SUPER WINNER TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 5 6.3 3-1/2
6 3 PULSAR STRIDER L Hewitson · T P Yung 4 24.0 3-1/2
7 7 FAST VICTORY K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 14.0 5
8 6 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M L Yeung · K L Man 9 19.0 5
9 5 FRANTANCK K C Leung · P C Ng 6 51.0 6
10 4 CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 10 40.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MODULECONSTRUCTION2. DRAGON'S LUCK+0.1L3. SUPER HIGHWAY+3.25L4. MAGNIAC+3.25L5. SUPER WINNER+3.5L6. PULSAR STRIDER+3.5L7. FAST VICTORY+5L8. COMPASSION SPIRIT+5L9. FRANTANCK+6L10. CALIFORNIA CIBLE+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DRAGON'S LUCK (26.9%) finished 2nd — the winner MODULECONSTRUCTION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DRAGON'S LUCK 26.9% 3.72 2
2 8 MODULECONSTRUCTION 25.0% 4.01 1
3 9 SUPER WINNER 13.4% 7.48 5
4 10 SUPER HIGHWAY 8.6% 11.63 3
5 7 FAST VICTORY 5.7% 17.69 7
6 6 COMPASSION SPIRIT 5.0% 20.01 8
7 3 PULSAR STRIDER 4.8% 20.63 6
8 2 MAGNIAC 4.6% 21.78 4
9 5 FRANTANCK 3.4% 29.71 9
10 4 CALIFORNIA CIBLE 2.7% 36.67 10
DRAGON'S LUCKMODULECONSTRUCTION — wonSUPER WINNERSUPER HIGHWAYFAST VICTORYCOMPASSION SPIRITPULSAR STRIDERMAGNIACFRANTANCKCALIFORNIA CIBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 35.5

PLACE

1 11

8 13

10 37

QUINELLA

1,8 38.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 19.5

1,10 51.5

8,10 65.5

FORECAST

8,1 78

TIERCE

8,1,10 530

TRIO

1,8,10 134

FIRST 4

1,2,8,10 260

QUARTET

8,1,10,2 4,898

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/7/1 65

7/7/8 526

4TH DOUBLE

7/1 10.5

7/8 76