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Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 07:38

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with AESTHETICISM second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite LUCKY ETERNITY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.35.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly CP-/XB/B1 1.35.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K W Lui 3 32.0 3/4
2 12 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B C Y Ho · P C Ng 14 19.0 3/4
3 10 MASTER HERO Closed strongly CP/XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 11.0 3/4
4 4 SNOWALOT Closed strongly B Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 8.6 2
5 14 PROSECCO Closed strongly SR/V2/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 5.9 2
6 9 LUCKY ETERNITY CP H Bowman · T P Yung 5 3.5 3
7 13 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 6.9 3
8 2 PRECISE EXPRESS H2/TT- A Atzeni · P F Yiu 7 17.0 3-1/2
9 6 LOOKING COOL CP A Badel · F C Lor 10 34.0 4
10 11 HORSE OF GOOD LUCK Led early H/B1/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 11 56.0 4-1/4
11 5 SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 7.4 5
12 3 SERANGOON H/CP1/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 35.0 6
13 8 FOREVER FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang 9 38.0 7-1/4
14 1 SUPER HONG KONG B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 6 27.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG GLORY2. AESTHETICISM+0.75L3. MASTER HERO+0.75L4. SNOWALOT+2L5. PROSECCO+2L6. LUCKY ETERNITY+3L7. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3L8. PRECISE EXPRESS+3.5L9. LOOKING COOL+4L10. HORSE OF GOOD LUCK+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY ETERNITY (30.6%) finished 6th — the winner CHANCHENG GLORY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LUCKY ETERNITY 30.6% 3.27 6
2 4 SNOWALOT 12.1% 8.27 4
3 5 SMILING COLLECTOR 10.2% 9.79 11
4 13 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 8.0% 12.49 7
5 6 LOOKING COOL 7.5% 13.30 9
6 10 MASTER HERO 6.6% 15.12 3
7 14 PROSECCO 6.4% 15.51 5
8 1 SUPER HONG KONG 5.8% 17.32 14
9 12 AESTHETICISM 3.3% 30.52 2
10 8 FOREVER FOLKS 2.5% 39.59 13
11 7 CHANCHENG GLORY 2.4% 41.12 1
12 2 PRECISE EXPRESS 2.3% 43.18 8
13 3 SERANGOON 1.5% 65.82 12
14 11 HORSE OF GOOD LUCK 0.6% 158.43 10
LUCKY ETERNITYSNOWALOTSMILING COLLECTORPRESIDENT'S CHOICELOOKING COOLMASTER HEROPROSECCOSUPER HONG KONGAESTHETICISMFOREVER FOLKSCHANCHENG GLORY — wonPRECISE EXPRESSSERANGOONHORSE OF GOOD LUCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 327

PLACE

7 89.5

10 38

12 54

QUINELLA

7,12 3,410.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 610

7,12 912

10,12 271

FORECAST

7,12 4,429

TIERCE

7,12,10 99,072

TRIO

7,10,12 11,075

FIRST 4

4,7,10,12 26,318

QUARTET

7,12,10,4 1,006,263

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,10/7,10,12 211,534

5TH DOUBLE

8/7 1,127

8/12 132.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,7/1,8,10/7,10,12 9,302,237

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,7/1,8,10/Any Combination 264