Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 08:46
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. STOLTZ, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with ADIOS second and KURPANY third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STOLTZ CP 0.55.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 5 | 1.9 | N |
| 2 | 4 | ADIOS TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 5.1 | N |
| 3 | 3 | KURPANY B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 9.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | WHIZZ KID B/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 6 | 8.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | SIGHT SUCCESS E H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 2 | 6.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | WE ARE HERO V/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STOLTZ | 40.5% | 2.47 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | ADIOS | 13.5% | 7.39 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 13.4% | 7.46 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | WHIZZ KID | 10.1% | 9.95 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | KURPANY | 9.1% | 10.94 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | REWARDING TOGETHER | 6.8% | 14.79 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | WE ARE HERO | 6.6% | 15.09 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 19.5
PLACE
2 10.1
3 26.5
4 14.5
QUINELLA
2,4 50.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 33.5
2,4 23
3,4 64.5
FORECAST
2,4 71
TIERCE
2,4,3 355
TRIO
2,3,4 122
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 103
QUARTET
2,4,3,6 1,023
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,8/2,3,4 1,715
7TH DOUBLE
1/2 28.5
1/4 17