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Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 06:32

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING CHEER, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with LADY'S CHOICE second and PINS PRINCE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 KA YING CHEER CP1 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · P C Ng 8 2.1 SH
2 1 LADY'S CHOICE B/H Z Purton · C W Chang 12 6.5 SH
3 4 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT H Bowman · J Size 9 6.6 2-1/4
4 12 NOBLE ONE B A Badel · K W Lui 6 9.0 3-1/2
5 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON TT M Chadwick · W Y So 11 43.0 3-3/4
6 2 SIGHT HERO B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 1 11.0 4-1/4
7 10 BULB PRINCE H/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 3 30.0 4-3/4
8 3 NISHIKADO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 5 37.0 5-1/2
9 5 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER H Bentley · C Fownes 2 14.0 6
10 11 DUBLIN STAR B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 4 20.0 6-1/4
11 9 SIMPLY MAVERICK B K De Melo · P F Yiu 10 34.0 10-1/2
12 6 BEAUTY UNITY XB1/TT1 K C Leung · J Richards 7 82.0 16

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING CHEER2. LADY'S CHOICE+0.1L3. PINS PRINCE+2.25L4. NOBLE ONE+3.5L5. SUPER WISE DRAGON+3.75L6. SIGHT HERO+4.25L7. BULB PRINCE+4.75L8. NISHIKADO+5.5L9. YOUNG LIFE FOREVER+6L10. DUBLIN STAR+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LADY'S CHOICE (31.8%) finished 2nd — the winner KA YING CHEER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LADY'S CHOICE 31.8% 3.14 2
2 5 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER 13.2% 7.59 9
3 12 NOBLE ONE 11.5% 8.68 4
4 4 PINS PRINCE 10.3% 9.75 3
5 11 DUBLIN STAR 6.3% 15.82 10
6 6 BEAUTY UNITY 5.9% 16.86 12
7 10 BULB PRINCE 4.9% 20.39 7
8 7 KA YING CHEER 3.8% 26.23 1
9 2 SIGHT HERO 3.7% 26.72 6
10 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON 3.6% 27.80 5
11 3 NISHIKADO 3.5% 28.95 8
12 9 SIMPLY MAVERICK 1.5% 67.17 11
LADY'S CHOICEYOUNG LIFE FOREVERNOBLE ONEPINS PRINCEDUBLIN STARBEAUTY UNITYBULB PRINCEKA YING CHEER — wonSIGHT HEROSUPER WISE DRAGONNISHIKADOSIMPLY MAVERICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 21.5

PLACE

1 20.5

4 19

7 12.5

QUINELLA

1,7 70.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 65.5

1,7 33.5

4,7 40

FORECAST

7,1 125

TIERCE

7,1,4 411

TRIO

1,4,7 117

FIRST 4

1,4,7,12 168

QUARTET

7,1,4,12 1,855

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,9/1,4,7 2,726

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 61.5

7/7 85.5