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Sha Tin · 2023-11-05 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-05 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DROMBEG BANNER, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with GREEN N WHITE second and BEAUTY FIT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.1 favourite YELLOWFIN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 DROMBEG BANNER Wire to wire 1.21.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P C Ng 10 18.0 SH
2 7 GREEN N WHITE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · P F Yiu 9 3.0 SH
3 11 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P A Hamelin · J Size 5 20.0 SH
4 4 BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H M Chadwick · D J Whyte 13 12.0 1
5 9 FOOLISH HEART Closed strongly M L Yeung · C W Chang 1 112.0 2-1/2
6 6 YELLOWFIN XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 2.1 3
7 2 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly TT1 E C W Wong · C Fownes 14 50.0 4
8 8 CIRCUIT MIGHTY Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · K L Man 3 29.0 4-1/2
9 12 FLAMINGO TRILLION CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor 12 22.0 6
10 14 PHOENIX LIGHT Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · C H Yip 11 110.0 6
11 13 FALLON Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 6 149.0 7-1/2
12 5 GOOD BUDDY CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 21.0 8-1/2
13 3 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT2 B Avdulla · D A Hayes 2 67.0 10-1/4
14 10 PARTERRE B K Teetan · W Y So 8 20.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DROMBEG BANNER2. GREEN N WHITE+0.1L3. BEAUTY FIT+0.1L4. BLUE MARLIN+1L5. FOOLISH HEART+2.5L6. YELLOWFIN+3L7. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+4L8. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+4.5L9. FLAMINGO TRILLION+6L10. PHOENIX LIGHT+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick YELLOWFIN (24.6%) finished 6th — the winner DROMBEG BANNER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 YELLOWFIN 24.6% 4.06 6
2 7 GREEN N WHITE 24.1% 4.14 2
3 4 BLUE MARLIN 10.5% 9.48 4
4 12 FLAMINGO TRILLION 8.0% 12.56 9
5 8 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 6.0% 16.54 8
6 5 GOOD BUDDY 4.8% 20.65 12
7 1 DROMBEG BANNER 4.8% 20.94 1
8 2 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 4.5% 22.03 7
9 10 PARTERRE 3.7% 26.71 14
10 11 BEAUTY FIT 2.6% 38.75 3
11 14 PHOENIX LIGHT 2.3% 44.28 10
12 9 FOOLISH HEART 1.7% 58.31 5
13 3 ORIENTAL SMOKE 1.6% 61.49 13
14 13 FALLON 0.6% 171.64 11
YELLOWFINGREEN N WHITEBLUE MARLINFLAMINGO TRILLIONCIRCUIT MIGHTYGOOD BUDDYDROMBEG BANNER — wonFLAGSHIP WARRIORPARTERREBEAUTY FITPHOENIX LIGHTFOOLISH HEARTORIENTAL SMOKEFALLON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 181

PLACE

1 47

7 12

11 40

QUINELLA

1,7 219

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 76.5

1,11 374.5

7,11 78

FORECAST

1,7 683

TIERCE

1,7,11 8,143

TRIO

1,7,11 1,253

FIRST 4

1,4,7,11 2,224

QUARTET

1,7,11,4 63,486

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/5/1 3,339

5/5/7 72

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,10/1,7,11 29,952

9TH DOUBLE

5/1 961

5/7 40

SIX UP

7,10/2,13/2,9/3,5/5,10/1,7 10,189

7/13/2/5/5/1 2,909,138

1 [A S Cruz]

4 [Y L Chung]