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Sha Tin · 2023-11-05 · 07:35

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DATA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with ARIEL second and CHAMPION INSTINCT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite TOP TOP TEA finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.22.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B 1.22.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 11.0 1-1/4
2 2 ARIEL Closed strongly CP/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 4 6.3 1-1/4
3 11 CHAMPION INSTINCT Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall 12 20.0 1-3/4
4 14 PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 35.0 2
5 7 MR ALADDIN B A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 28.0 2-1/4
6 3 DREAM PURSUER Closed strongly CP1 B Avdulla · K L Man 14 35.0 2-1/4
7 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 11 21.0 2-1/2
8 4 DIVINE ERA Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 7.9 3
9 1 TOP TOP TEA B-/TT1 Z Purton · C H Yip 2 3.2 3-1/4
10 6 COMMANDING MISSILE B/H C L Chau · C W Chang 7 29.0 3-1/2
11 5 CLUB SODA L Currie · J Size 9 19.0 3-3/4
12 9 KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly V/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 15.0 4-1/2
13 12 DRAGON PRIDE V A Hamelin · T P Yung 10 60.0 4-3/4
14 10 NATURAL GOLD Led early B/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 5 5.7 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DATA2. ARIEL+1.25L3. CHAMPION INSTINCT+1.75L4. PERFECT PEACH+2L5. MR ALADDIN+2.25L6. DREAM PURSUER+2.25L7. SUPER WISE DRAGON+2.5L8. DIVINE ERA+3L9. TOP TOP TEA+3.25L10. COMMANDING MISSILE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOP TOP TEA (21.9%) finished 9th — the winner WINNING DATA was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TOP TOP TEA 21.9% 4.56 9
2 10 NATURAL GOLD 12.5% 8.03 14
3 2 ARIEL 10.8% 9.29 2
4 11 CHAMPION INSTINCT 7.1% 14.05 3
5 9 KILLER INSTINCT 6.9% 14.59 12
6 4 DIVINE ERA 6.4% 15.65 8
7 6 COMMANDING MISSILE 6.2% 16.18 10
8 5 CLUB SODA 5.0% 19.89 11
9 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON 5.0% 19.89 7
10 13 WINNING DATA 4.7% 21.45 1
11 3 DREAM PURSUER 4.3% 23.31 6
12 12 DRAGON PRIDE 4.0% 25.09 13
13 14 PERFECT PEACH 3.6% 27.59 4
14 7 MR ALADDIN 1.7% 58.73 5
TOP TOP TEANATURAL GOLDARIELCHAMPION INSTINCTKILLER INSTINCTDIVINE ERACOMMANDING MISSILECLUB SODASUPER WISE DRAGONWINNING DATA — wonDREAM PURSUERDRAGON PRIDEPERFECT PEACHMR ALADDIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 119

PLACE

2 24.5

11 53

13 45.5

QUINELLA

2,13 515

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 227

2,13 156

11,13 453.5

FORECAST

13,2 1,118

TIERCE

13,2,11 18,073

TRIO

2,11,13 2,912

FIRST 4

2,11,13,14 15,530

QUARTET

13,2,11,14 278,791

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,10/2,11,13 259,475

5TH DOUBLE

7/2 47.5

7/13 553.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4>7,10,13/1,7,10/2,11,13 7,957,822

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4>7,10,13/1,7,10/Any Combination 33,728