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Sha Tin · 2023-11-05 · 15:33

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B 1.22.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 11.0 1-1/4
2 0 ARIEL Closed strongly CP/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 4 6.3 1-1/4
3 0 CHAMPION INSTINCT Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall 12 20.0 1-3/4
4 0 PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 35.0 2
5 0 MR ALADDIN B A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 28.0 2-1/4
6 0 DREAM PURSUER Closed strongly CP1 B Avdulla · K L Man 14 35.0 2-1/4
7 0 SUPER WISE DRAGON Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 11 21.0 2-1/2
8 0 DIVINE ERA Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 7.9 3
9 0 TOP TOP TEA B-/TT1 Z Purton · C H Yip 2 3.2 3-1/4
10 0 COMMANDING MISSILE B/H C L Chau · C W Chang 7 29.0 3-1/2
11 0 CLUB SODA L Currie · J Size 9 19.0 3-3/4
12 0 KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly V/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 15.0 4-1/2
13 0 DRAGON PRIDE V A Hamelin · T P Yung 10 60.0 4-3/4
14 0 NATURAL GOLD Led early B/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 5 5.7 6-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DATA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with ARIEL second and CHAMPION INSTINCT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite TOP TOP TEA finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DATA—2. ARIEL+1.25L3. CHAMPION INSTINCT+1.75L4. PERFECT PEACH+2L5. MR ALADDIN+2.25L6. DREAM PURSUER+2.25L7. SUPER WISE DRAGON+2.5L8. DIVINE ERA+3L9. TOP TOP TEA+3.25L10. COMMANDING MISSILE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOP TOP TEA (21.9%) finished 9th — the winner WINNING DATA was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TOP TOP TEA 21.9% 4.56 9
2 0 NATURAL GOLD 12.5% 8.03 14
3 0 ARIEL 10.8% 9.29 2
4 0 CHAMPION INSTINCT 7.1% 14.05 3
5 0 KILLER INSTINCT 6.9% 14.59 12
6 0 DIVINE ERA 6.4% 15.65 8
7 0 COMMANDING MISSILE 6.2% 16.18 10
8 0 CLUB SODA 5.0% 19.89 11
9 0 SUPER WISE DRAGON 5.0% 19.89 7
10 0 WINNING DATA 4.7% 21.45 1
11 0 DREAM PURSUER 4.3% 23.31 6
12 0 DRAGON PRIDE 4.0% 25.09 13
13 0 PERFECT PEACH 3.6% 27.59 4
14 0 MR ALADDIN 1.7% 58.73 5
TOP TOP TEANATURAL GOLDARIELCHAMPION INSTINCTKILLER INSTINCTDIVINE ERACOMMANDING MISSILECLUB SODASUPER WISE DRAGONWINNING DATA — wonDREAM PURSUERDRAGON PRIDEPERFECT PEACHMR ALADDIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 119

PLACE

2 24.5

11 53

13 45.5

QUINELLA

2,13 515

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 227

2,13 156

11,13 453.5

FORECAST

13,2 1,118

TIERCE

13,2,11 18,073

TRIO

2,11,13 2,912

FIRST 4

2,11,13,14 15,530

QUARTET

13,2,11,14 278,791

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,10/2,11,13 259,475

5TH DOUBLE

7/2 47.5

7/13 553.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4>7,10,13/1,7,10/2,11,13 7,957,822

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4>7,10,13/1,7,10/Any Combination 33,728