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Sha Tin · 2023-11-05 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GLOBAL HARMONY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with LADY'S CHOICE second and BEAUTY CRESCENT third. The 3.2 favourite GREENWICH finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GLOBAL HARMONY CP 1.09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 6.2 N
2 10 LADY'S CHOICE B/H Z Purton · C W Chang 10 4.5 N
3 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 5.5 1-1/4
4 4 GOLDEN EMPIRE B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 18.0 1-1/4
5 12 GREENWICH TT A Badel · P C Ng 3 3.2 1-3/4
6 6 SWIFT ASCEND XB K De Melo · D J Whyte 2 15.0 3-3/4
7 9 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M L Yeung · K L Man 8 74.0 4
8 7 NORTHERN BEACHES M Chadwick · W Y So 11 7.8 5
9 2 SOLID IMPACT B B Avdulla · D J Hall 12 53.0 5-1/4
10 3 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 6 21.0 8
11 8 BEER PALACE A Atzeni · M Newnham 1 108.0 8-3/4
12 11 MASTER STROKE M F Poon · C H Yip 5 177.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLOBAL HARMONY2. LADY'S CHOICE+0.05L3. BEAUTY CRESCENT+1.25L4. GOLDEN EMPIRE+1.25L5. GREENWICH+1.75L6. SWIFT ASCEND+3.75L7. COMPASSION SPIRIT+4L8. NORTHERN BEACHES+5L9. SOLID IMPACT+5.25L10. ARMOUR EAGLE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LADY'S CHOICE (26.1%) finished 2nd — the winner GLOBAL HARMONY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LADY'S CHOICE 26.1% 3.83 2
2 12 GREENWICH 17.2% 5.83 5
3 5 GLOBAL HARMONY 10.5% 9.53 1
4 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT 9.2% 10.82 3
5 4 GOLDEN EMPIRE 9.0% 11.07 4
6 7 NORTHERN BEACHES 7.9% 12.73 8
7 3 ARMOUR EAGLE 4.9% 20.36 10
8 6 SWIFT ASCEND 4.4% 22.73 6
9 8 BEER PALACE 4.1% 24.20 11
10 2 SOLID IMPACT 2.8% 36.13 9
11 9 COMPASSION SPIRIT 2.5% 40.61 7
12 11 MASTER STROKE 1.5% 68.21 12
LADY'S CHOICEGREENWICHGLOBAL HARMONY — wonBEAUTY CRESCENTGOLDEN EMPIRENORTHERN BEACHESARMOUR EAGLESWIFT ASCENDBEER PALACESOLID IMPACTCOMPASSION SPIRITMASTER STROKE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 62.5

PLACE

1 19.5

5 20.5

10 16

QUINELLA

5,10 174

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 52

1,10 61.5

5,10 63.5

FORECAST

5,10 415

TIERCE

5,10,1 1,135

TRIO

1,5,10 142

FIRST 4

1,4,5,10 484

QUARTET

5,10,1,4 9,585

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

5/5 120

5/10 26.5