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Sha Tin · 2023-11-05 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-05 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. WIDE BLUE YONDER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with MASTER HERO second and AESTHETICISM third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite AESTHETICISM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 WIDE BLUE YONDER Wire to wire B/TT 1.34.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 35.0 N
2 7 MASTER HERO Closed strongly CP/XB/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 4.2 N
3 10 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B Z Purton · P C Ng 4 2.9 1/2
4 11 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly L Ferraris · D J Hall 13 54.0 3/4
5 6 LUCKY ETERNITY CP M Chadwick · T P Yung 12 11.0 1-1/2
6 3 LOOKING COOL CP A Badel · F C Lor 2 9.9 1-1/2
7 5 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB L Currie · J Size 10 29.0 2-1/4
8 2 CASA COSMO Closed strongly CP/XB/TT K De Melo · J Richards 8 59.0 3
9 14 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly K Teetan · C W Chang 11 22.0 3
10 1 ROYAL PRIDE TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 6 13.0 3-1/2
11 9 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT C L Chau · W Y So 1 6.3 4-1/4
12 8 GO GO SIXTEEN B/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 7 19.0 6-1/4
13 12 BULB PRINCE H/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 37.0 6-1/2
13 RELIABLE PROFIT A Atzeni · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WIDE BLUE YONDER2. MASTER HERO+0.05L3. AESTHETICISM+0.5L4. SHARPEN BRIGHT+0.75L5. LUCKY ETERNITY+1.5L6. LOOKING COOL+1.5L7. NOBLE WIN+2.25L8. CASA COSMO+3L9. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3L10. ROYAL PRIDE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick AESTHETICISM (25.2%) finished 3rd — the winner WIDE BLUE YONDER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 AESTHETICISM 25.2% 3.97 3
2 9 PAKISTAN FRIEND 14.8% 6.78 11
3 1 ROYAL PRIDE 10.8% 9.23 10
4 6 LUCKY ETERNITY 8.8% 11.41 5
5 7 MASTER HERO 8.7% 11.53 2
6 3 LOOKING COOL 5.4% 18.45 6
7 14 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 5.2% 19.11 9
8 4 WIDE BLUE YONDER 5.1% 19.57 1
9 11 SHARPEN BRIGHT 4.3% 23.18 4
10 2 CASA COSMO 3.2% 31.13 8
11 5 NOBLE WIN 3.1% 32.21 7
12 12 BULB PRINCE 2.9% 34.44 13
13 8 GO GO SIXTEEN 2.5% 39.78 12
AESTHETICISMPAKISTAN FRIENDROYAL PRIDELUCKY ETERNITYMASTER HEROLOOKING COOLPRESIDENT'S CHOICEWIDE BLUE YONDER — wonSHARPEN BRIGHTCASA COSMONOBLE WINBULB PRINCEGO GO SIXTEEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 352.5

PLACE

4 62.5

7 16

10 15

QUINELLA

4,7 577

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 135

4,10 154

7,10 29

FORECAST

4,7 1,725

TIERCE

4,7,10 7,773

TRIO

4,7,10 522

FIRST 4

4,7,10,11 4,776

QUARTET

4,7,10,11 168,769

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,12/4>7,10,13 163,931

3RD DOUBLE

12/4 4,120

12/7 131