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Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KAHOLO ANGEL, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/4, with SUPER LEGENDS second and RUBYLOT third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 KAHOLO ANGEL TT 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 3.3 2-1/4
2 2 SUPER LEGENDS TT H Bowman · C S Shum 1 3.8 2-1/4
3 3 RUBYLOT CP1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 4 4.9 2-1/4
4 6 JAMES TAK K C Leung · T P Yung 7 84.0 3
5 8 PANDA B1 K Teetan · C H Yip 8 13.0 4-3/4
6 9 THE ABSOLUTE TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 13 10.0 6-1/4
7 7 MISSION VOICE Z Purton · M Newnham 12 6.2 6-1/4
8 10 THE CONCENTRATION M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 131.0 7-1/2
9 13 GREAT DAYS CP/XB A Hamelin · P C Ng 6 86.0 7-3/4
10 11 BOOMBAYAH H C L Chau · C W Chang 9 103.0 8-1/2
11 12 LADY BILLIE H1/TT1 M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 90.0 9-3/4
12 4 COUNTRY DANCER B Avdulla · J Size 14 22.0 10
13 5 HICKORY VICTORY B1/TT1 K De Melo · J Richards 5 66.0 17-1/2
14 14 DASHING SUCCESS B1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 11 158.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KAHOLO ANGEL2. SUPER LEGENDS+2.25L3. RUBYLOT+2.25L4. JAMES TAK+3L5. PANDA+4.75L6. THE ABSOLUTE+6.25L7. MISSION VOICE+6.25L8. THE CONCENTRATION+7.5L9. GREAT DAYS+7.75L10. BOOMBAYAH+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPER LEGENDS (27.9%) finished 2nd — the winner KAHOLO ANGEL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SUPER LEGENDS 27.9% 3.58 2
2 3 RUBYLOT 19.5% 5.13 3
3 1 KAHOLO ANGEL 15.7% 6.38 1
4 7 MISSION VOICE 10.8% 9.24 7
5 9 THE ABSOLUTE 6.0% 16.72 6
6 5 HICKORY VICTORY 5.3% 18.96 13
7 8 PANDA 5.0% 20.20 5
8 6 JAMES TAK 3.7% 27.17 4
9 12 LADY BILLIE 2.4% 41.01 11
10 4 COUNTRY DANCER 1.8% 56.54 12
11 10 THE CONCENTRATION 0.7% 145.68 8
12 11 BOOMBAYAH 0.6% 170.46 10
13 13 GREAT DAYS 0.4% 253.85 9
14 14 DASHING SUCCESS 0.3% 314.80 14
SUPER LEGENDSRUBYLOTKAHOLO ANGEL — wonMISSION VOICETHE ABSOLUTEHICKORY VICTORYPANDAJAMES TAKLADY BILLIECOUNTRY DANCERTHE CONCENTRATIONBOOMBAYAHGREAT DAYSDASHING SUCCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 33.5

PLACE

1 14

2 15.5

3 14.5

QUINELLA

1,2 64.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 27

1,3 27.5

2,3 28

FORECAST

1,2 121

TIERCE

1,2,3 269

TRIO

1,2,3 45

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 698

QUARTET

1,2,3,6 8,743