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Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MUGEN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY WAVES second and MODULECONSTRUCTION third. The 2.1 favourite MODULECONSTRUCTION finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MUGEN TT- 1.08.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 6 8.7 1/2
2 7 BEAUTY WAVES XB Z Purton · D J Whyte 13 10.0 1/2
3 4 MODULECONSTRUCTION TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 2.1 1-1/4
4 6 TORONADO PHANTOM TT B Avdulla · J Size 5 15.0 1-1/2
5 10 SPEED SWORD TT1 A Badel · F C Lor 3 16.0 7
6 8 JOLLY COMPANION XB1 C L Chau · K L Man 9 126.0 7-1/4
7 1 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT K C Leung · W Y So 11 80.0 7-1/2
8 5 HAPPY DAILY A Hamelin · C H Yip 7 24.0 8-1/4
9 3 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 10 14.0 8-1/2
10 11 SUPER TEN B-/XB2/TT- M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 122.0 8-1/2
11 2 VIVA CHALEUR TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 4 26.0 9-1/2
12 12 CHAMPION METHOD TT A Atzeni · C S Shum 8 7.8 10-1/4
13 13 RED ELEGANCE XB-/H1/TT K De Melo · J Richards 2 9.5 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MUGEN2. BEAUTY WAVES+0.5L3. MODULECONSTRUCTION+1.25L4. TORONADO PHANTOM+1.5L5. SPEED SWORD+7L6. JOLLY COMPANION+7.25L7. SUPER WIN DRAGON+7.5L8. HAPPY DAILY+8.25L9. SUPER FORTUNE+8.5L10. SUPER TEN+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MODULECONSTRUCTION (33.1%) finished 3rd — the winner MUGEN was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MODULECONSTRUCTION 33.1% 3.02 3
2 7 BEAUTY WAVES 13.5% 7.41 2
3 12 CHAMPION METHOD 12.9% 7.75 12
4 13 RED ELEGANCE 6.8% 14.81 13
5 10 SPEED SWORD 5.4% 18.44 5
6 3 SUPER FORTUNE 4.8% 20.70 9
7 2 VIVA CHALEUR 4.3% 23.46 11
8 9 MUGEN 4.1% 24.29 1
9 5 HAPPY DAILY 4.0% 24.86 8
10 6 TORONADO PHANTOM 3.6% 28.08 4
11 8 JOLLY COMPANION 3.4% 29.61 6
12 1 SUPER WIN DRAGON 2.6% 38.08 7
13 11 SUPER TEN 1.6% 63.72 10
MODULECONSTRUCTIONBEAUTY WAVESCHAMPION METHODRED ELEGANCESPEED SWORDSUPER FORTUNEVIVA CHALEURMUGEN — wonHAPPY DAILYTORONADO PHANTOMJOLLY COMPANIONSUPER WIN DRAGONSUPER TEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 87

PLACE

4 11.5

7 35.5

9 29.5

QUINELLA

7,9 758.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 52.5

4,9 44.5

7,9 199

FORECAST

9,7 1,519

TIERCE

9,7,4 4,322

TRIO

4,7,9 421

FIRST 4

4,6,7,9 1,164

QUARTET

9,7,4,6 48,291

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

8/7 69

8/9 439