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Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MASTER OF FORTUNE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by NOSE, with BEAUTY FIT second and SILVER KING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite BEAUTY FIT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT 1.35.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 5 3.5 NOSE
2 8 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P A Hamelin · J Size 2 3.4 NOSE
3 2 SILVER KING Led early XB1/TT1 H Bowman · F C Lor 10 6.1 N
4 4 POWERFUL WINGS B Y L Chung · P F Yiu 7 11.0 1/2
5 5 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 10.0 1-1/2
6 7 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 12 17.0 2-1/4
7 10 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H A Atzeni · P F Yiu 6 13.0 3
7 11 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 11 63.0 3
9 6 MARADO B C L Chau · W Y So 1 15.0 3-1/4
10 12 HARRY'S HERO XB/H1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 115.0 3-1/2
11 3 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 54.0 8-1/4
12 1 LEADING FORTUNE B B Avdulla · J Size 8 23.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER OF FORTUNE2. BEAUTY FIT+0.05L3. SILVER KING+0.05L4. POWERFUL WINGS+0.5L5. SPEED DRAGON+1.5L6. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+2.25L7. PRECISE EXPRESS+3L7. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+3L9. MARADO+3.25L10. HARRY'S HERO+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MASTER OF FORTUNE (36.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MASTER OF FORTUNE 36.1% 2.77 1
2 2 SILVER KING 12.9% 7.73 3
3 8 BEAUTY FIT 10.8% 9.25 2
4 4 POWERFUL WINGS 9.8% 10.24 4
5 6 MARADO 7.6% 13.21 9
6 10 PRECISE EXPRESS 6.5% 15.48 7
7 5 SPEED DRAGON 4.7% 21.32 5
8 7 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 4.0% 25.09 6
9 3 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 2.6% 38.31 11
10 1 LEADING FORTUNE 2.5% 39.24 12
11 11 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 2.0% 50.56 7
12 12 HARRY'S HERO 0.5% 182.59 10
MASTER OF FORTUNE — wonSILVER KINGBEAUTY FITPOWERFUL WINGSMARADOPRECISE EXPRESSSPEED DRAGONYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGABSOLUTE SUNSHINELEADING FORTUNEINVINCIBLE MISSILEHARRY'S HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 35

PLACE

2 24

8 14.5

9 15.5

QUINELLA

8,9 59.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 44.5

2,9 46

8,9 26.5

FORECAST

9,8 109

TIERCE

9,8,2 469

TRIO

2,8,9 115

FIRST 4

2,4,8,9 247

QUARTET

9,8,2,4 3,581

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/4/8 50

1/4/9 145

4TH DOUBLE

4/8 21.5

4/9 81.5