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Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WINNER, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by 2, with D STAR second and KA YING CHEER third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite JOYFUL HUNTER finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.22.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUPER WINNER Wire to wire TT 1.22.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C H Yip 7 9.7 2
2 9 D STAR Closed strongly H-/B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 27.0 2
3 14 KA YING CHEER CP M L Yeung · P C Ng 2 3.8 2-1/4
4 1 AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · W Y So 10 12.0 3-1/4
5 10 SHOW RESPECT CP-/SR-/XB/B1/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 9 29.0 3-1/4
6 6 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 6 6.3 3-1/4
7 7 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly B/XB/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 14 25.0 3-1/2
8 8 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 72.0 4-3/4
9 13 AORAKI SUMMIT Closed strongly CP/TT1 A Atzeni · F C Lor 12 177.0 5
10 5 RED ACLAIM TT1 A Badel · J Size 5 45.0 6-3/4
11 3 JOYFUL HUNTER XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 2.4 6-3/4
12 4 CAPITAL LEGEND TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 11 27.0 7-1/2
13 12 UP AND UP B-/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 13 86.0 8-1/2
2 HYPER DRAGON BALL C L Chau · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WINNER2. D STAR+2L3. KA YING CHEER+2.25L4. AMAZING VICTORY+3.25L5. SHOW RESPECT+3.25L6. FLYING MOJITO+3.25L7. RATTAN KINGDOM+3.5L8. SETANTA+4.75L9. AORAKI SUMMIT+5L10. RED ACLAIM+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLYING MOJITO (27.1%) finished 6th — the winner SUPER WINNER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 FLYING MOJITO 27.1% 3.69 6
2 3 JOYFUL HUNTER 19.8% 5.06 11
3 14 KA YING CHEER 14.7% 6.80 3
4 11 SUPER WINNER 8.7% 11.56 1
5 9 D STAR 7.3% 13.77 2
6 1 AMAZING VICTORY 5.0% 20.10 4
7 4 CAPITAL LEGEND 4.2% 23.62 12
8 5 RED ACLAIM 3.5% 28.44 10
9 12 UP AND UP 2.8% 36.05 13
10 10 SHOW RESPECT 2.6% 38.51 5
11 7 RATTAN KINGDOM 2.0% 49.47 7
12 8 SETANTA 1.9% 52.78 8
13 13 AORAKI SUMMIT 0.5% 198.57 9
FLYING MOJITOJOYFUL HUNTERKA YING CHEERSUPER WINNER — wonD STARAMAZING VICTORYCAPITAL LEGENDRED ACLAIMUP AND UPSHOW RESPECTRATTAN KINGDOMSETANTAAORAKI SUMMIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 97.5

PLACE

9 55

11 28

14 15.5

QUINELLA

9,11 1,041

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 236

9,14 172

11,14 82.5

FORECAST

11,9 1,553

TIERCE

11,9,14 10,127

TRIO

9,11,14 1,569

FIRST 4

1,9,11,14 2,508

QUARTET

11,9,14,1 67,605

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

8/9/9 2,497

8/9/11 4,496

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,9/9,11,14 207,558

9TH DOUBLE

9/9 596

9/11 2,040.5

SIX UP

8,9/2,8/3,5/4,8/7,9/9,11 44,303

9/8/5/8/9/11 1,937,232

1 [Z Purton]

1 [P C Ng]