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Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 08:10

Race 7

Class 1 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 6 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SAUVESTRE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with RED LION second and DANCING CODE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.6 favourite CIRCUIT STELLAR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SAUVESTRE Wire to wire TT 1.21.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · F C Lor 4 11.0 N
2 3 RED LION Closed strongly A Badel · J Size 1 6.1 N
3 8 DANCING CODE B/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 3 7.3 N
4 6 ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB K De Melo · D J Hall 2 5.4 N
5 2 CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 3.6 2
6 4 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 13.0 2-1/2
— 1 TUCHEL H Bowman · J Size 6 4.5 —
— 7 FIND MY LOVE H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 7 14.0 —

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAUVESTRE—2. RED LION+0.05L3. DANCING CODE+0.05L4. ATULLIBIGEAL+0.05L5. CIRCUIT STELLAR+2L6. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CIRCUIT STELLAR (26.1%) finished 5th — the winner SAUVESTRE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CIRCUIT STELLAR 26.1% 3.83 5
2 3 RED LION 22.7% 4.41 2
3 8 DANCING CODE 18.3% 5.45 3
4 6 ATULLIBIGEAL 14.6% 6.84 4
5 4 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 9.2% 10.82 6
6 5 SAUVESTRE 9.0% 11.08 1
CIRCUIT STELLARRED LIONDANCING CODEATULLIBIGEALTHE GOLDEN SCENERYSAUVESTRE — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 115.5

PLACE

3 19.5

5 32

8 23.5

QUINELLA

3,5 445

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 126.5

3,8 66

5,8 154

FORECAST

5,3 998

TIERCE

5,3,8 5,876

TRIO

3,5,8 890

FIRST 4

3,5,6,8 836

QUARTET

5,3,8,6 33,444

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

8/3 48.5

8/5 860

← Race 6 Race 8 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99