Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 08:45
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. AESTHETICISM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with CELTIC TIMES second and SPECIAL HEDGE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B 1.35.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 4 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 1 | 6.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 98.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 14 | SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 13 | 23.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly H/SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Closed strongly H/XB/TT2 M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 12 | 130.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | AFFIRM TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 10 | 81.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 7 | 6.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | ENTRUSTED Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 11 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | SERANGOON Closed strongly H-/CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 67.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | NORTHERN BEAST B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 8 | 5.3 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | BLISSFUL STAR V/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 14 | 72.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | E TALENT K De Melo · K L Man | K De Melo | K L Man | 5 | 198.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 14 | 11 | THE EQUALIZER Led early B- M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 208.0 | 20 |
| — | 0 | CAN'T GO WONG M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | AESTHETICISM | 37.8% | 2.64 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | CELTIC TIMES | 16.3% | 6.12 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | MISTER DAPPER | 11.2% | 8.90 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | NORTHERN BEAST | 7.9% | 12.65 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | NOBLE WIN | 7.2% | 13.98 | 8 |
| 6 | 14 | SUPERB MOVE | 5.3% | 18.82 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | ENTRUSTED | 4.3% | 23.12 | 9 |
| 8 | 2 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 2.4% | 41.65 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | BLISSFUL STAR | 2.2% | 46.35 | 12 |
| 10 | 13 | AFFIRM | 1.8% | 55.72 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | SERANGOON | 1.8% | 56.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 0.8% | 119.43 | 3 |
| 13 | 5 | E TALENT | 0.5% | 205.69 | 13 |
| 14 | 11 | THE EQUALIZER | 0.4% | 222.72 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 24
PLACE
4 24.5
8 11.5
12 170.5
QUINELLA
4,8 76
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 36
4,12 841.5
8,12 309
FORECAST
8,4 148
TIERCE
8,4,12 5,912
TRIO
4,8,12 2,197
FIRST 4
4,8,12,14 4,064
QUARTET
8,4,12,14 43,032
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,8/4,8,12 169,386
7TH DOUBLE
5/4 197
5/8 471.5