Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 06:35
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. BILLIONAIRE SECRET, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 2-1/2, with DARCI JOY second and JUBILATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB 2.01.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 4 | 2.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 10 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 3 | 8.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | HAPPY ANGEL B L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 5 | 7.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | DAZZLING FELLOW Closed strongly B/XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 8 | 5.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | PAKISTAN FRIEND TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 1 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 12 | 11.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | CAPTAIN HURRICANE M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 2 | 30.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | AMAZING TEENS H/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 25.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK Led early B/H/TT K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 6 | 121.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 7 | WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 13 | 19.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 3 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 32.0 | 16 |
| — | 6 | RIGHT AS RAIN H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 20.3% | 4.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | DAZZLING FELLOW | 15.5% | 6.45 | 6 |
| 3 | 13 | SUNNY BABY | 10.8% | 9.28 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY ANGEL | 10.5% | 9.55 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 9.8% | 10.19 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | AMAZING TEENS | 7.7% | 12.95 | 10 |
| 7 | 2 | DARCI JOY | 5.0% | 20.03 | 2 |
| 8 | 14 | JUBILATION | 4.9% | 20.33 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 4.9% | 20.47 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | WONDER YEARS | 4.4% | 22.74 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | CAPTAIN HURRICANE | 2.8% | 35.26 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | SUPER HONG KONG | 2.7% | 37.16 | 13 |
| 13 | 10 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK | 0.7% | 137.67 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 29
PLACE
2 68.5
4 13.5
14 28.5
QUINELLA
2,4 348.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 124.5
2,14 324
4,14 52
FORECAST
4,2 609
TIERCE
4,2,14 4,919
TRIO
2,4,14 1,136
FIRST 4
2,4,8,14 3,261
QUARTET
4,2,14,8 43,726
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,9/2,4,14 30,595
3RD DOUBLE
1/2 64
1/4 51.5