Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 05:40
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY HERO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with FIERY FLYING second and SUN OF MAKFI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite FIERY FLYING finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HAPPY HERO Closed strongly B 2.03.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 3 | 3.8 | N |
| 2 | 3 | FIERY FLYING Closed strongly H-/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.8 | N |
| 3 | 2 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 1 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 13 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C W Chang | B Avdulla | C W Chang | 14 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 37.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | STARSHIP EIGHTY B/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 5 | 5.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GOLD STERLING TT L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 7 | 33.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 4 | 22.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 10 | 27.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | LOYAL AMBITION B-/TT- A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 11 | 34.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | COPARTNER FIONN Led early XB/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 9 | 38.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 7 | DIAMOND WINNER H1 K De Melo · J Size | K De Melo | J Size | 8 | 78.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 13 | GENEROUS FRIEND TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 204.0 | 23 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HAPPY HERO | 23.1% | 4.34 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | FIERY FLYING | 18.2% | 5.50 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | SUN OF MAKFI | 15.9% | 6.27 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 8.8% | 11.42 | 7 |
| 5 | 14 | SMART BEAUTY | 7.7% | 13.04 | 9 |
| 6 | 12 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 5.8% | 17.37 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 5.3% | 19.03 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | COPARTNER ERA | 3.6% | 27.81 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | COPARTNER FIONN | 3.2% | 30.89 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | SUPERB DADDY | 3.0% | 33.12 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | LOYAL AMBITION | 2.3% | 42.93 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | GOLD STERLING | 1.6% | 63.93 | 8 |
| 13 | 7 | DIAMOND WINNER | 0.8% | 121.55 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | GENEROUS FRIEND | 0.8% | 124.85 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 38
PLACE
2 34
3 14.5
10 15.5
QUINELLA
3,10 57
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 51.5
2,10 78.5
3,10 27.5
FORECAST
10,3 130
TIERCE
10,3,2 762
TRIO
2,3,10 183
FIRST 4
2,3,9,10 983
QUARTET
10,3,2,9 12,572
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/3 20
1/10 185
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,3/2,3,10 1,263