Sha Tin · 2023-11-11 · 07:40
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HOLY LAKE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with WAR OF COURAGE second and GLUCK RACER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite NOBLE PURSUIT finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB 1.22.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · K W Lui | B Avdulla | K W Lui | 6 | 5.9 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | WAR OF COURAGE Led early B Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 8 | 20.0 | SH |
| 3 | 12 | GLUCK RACER Closed strongly H K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 12 | 4.7 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB/TT- L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 5 | 7.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GO HERO A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 13 | 46.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.7 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | VOLCANIC SPARK B1/XB1 K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 4 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 10 | 51.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | CHATEAU Closed strongly B- Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | CHARMANDER B/TT C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 3 | 31.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 11 | 3.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 13 | GO GO GO Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 14 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 5 | GOLDEN CHAMPION B-/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 72.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 10 | TACTICAL COMMAND K C Leung · M Newnham | K C Leung | M Newnham | 9 | 79.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 22.2% | 4.51 | 11 |
| 2 | 3 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 10.0% | 9.97 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 8.3% | 12.07 | 6 |
| 4 | 14 | BOOM ALLIANCE | 8.1% | 12.30 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | WAR OF COURAGE | 8.1% | 12.31 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | CHARMANDER | 7.6% | 13.14 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | GLUCK RACER | 6.7% | 14.90 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | VOLCANIC SPARK | 6.5% | 15.27 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | HOLY LAKE | 6.3% | 15.88 | 1 |
| 10 | 13 | GO GO GO | 5.7% | 17.61 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | GO HERO | 4.2% | 23.81 | 5 |
| 12 | 4 | CHATEAU | 4.1% | 24.55 | 9 |
| 13 | 5 | GOLDEN CHAMPION | 1.1% | 89.88 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 1.0% | 96.87 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 59
PLACE
2 48.5
8 23
12 21
QUINELLA
2,8 491.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 160
2,12 169.5
8,12 65.5
FORECAST
8,2 1,079
TIERCE
8,2,12 5,564
TRIO
2,8,12 1,027
FIRST 4
2,3,8,12 1,726
QUARTET
8,2,12,3 37,246
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,9/2,8,12 14,778
5TH DOUBLE
9/2 128
9/8 217
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,14/2,8,9/2,8,12 2,533,762
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,14/2,8,9/Any Combination 1,161