Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 06:05

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HELIOS EXPRESS, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with PACKING TREADMILL second and FLYING ACE third. The 2.9 favourite LUCKY ENCOUNTER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.49

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	HELIOS EXPRESS 1.08.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	4	122 lb	3.9	N
2	1	PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	2	135 lb	21.0	N
3	2	FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	9	130 lb	5.8	1/2
4	3	LUCKY WITH YOU A Atzeni · F C Lor	A Atzeni	F C Lor	7	130 lb	13.0	1-3/4
5	9	LUCKY ENCOUNTER K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	5	120 lb	2.9	3
6	5	BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	1	129 lb	9.2	3-3/4
7	6	BUNDLE OF CHARM A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	6	124 lb	16.0	4-3/4
8	4	WE ARE HERO V/TT E C W Wong · K L Man	E C W Wong	K L Man	3	120 lb	89.0	5
9	7	DREAM WINNER C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	8	122 lb	6.9	7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick LUCKY ENCOUNTER (29.6%) finished 5th — the winner HELIOS EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	LUCKY ENCOUNTER	29.6%	3.38	5	2.9
2	8	HELIOS EXPRESS	18.9%	5.28	1	3.9
3	2	FLYING ACE	14.2%	7.02	3	5.8
4	7	DREAM WINNER	13.3%	7.55	9	6.9
5	1	PACKING TREADMILL	8.3%	12.03	2	21.0
6	5	BEAUTY CHARGE	5.8%	17.15	6	9.2
7	6	BUNDLE OF CHARM	4.6%	21.67	7	16.0
8	3	LUCKY WITH YOU	3.8%	26.46	4	13.0
9	4	WE ARE HERO	1.4%	69.38	8	89.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 39

PLACE

1 49.5

2 17.5

8 16.5

QUINELLA

1,8 401.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 134.5

1,8 110.5

2,8 46

FORECAST

8,1 596

TIERCE

8,1,2 5,191

TRIO

1,2,8 679

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 1,403

QUARTET

8,1,2,3 27,329

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

4/1 115

4/8 69

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