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Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 09:20

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALAXY PATCH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-3/4, with THE HEIR second and NORTHERN BEACHES third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GALAXY PATCH B 1.08.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 10 3.5 1-3/4
2 6 THE HEIR C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 16.0 1-3/4
3 8 NORTHERN BEACHES Z Purton · W Y So 7 3.8 2
4 3 SOLID IMPACT B B Avdulla · D J Hall 2 16.0 2-1/4
5 2 CELESTIAL COLOURS B1/TT1 L Hewitson · J Richards 8 8.6 2-3/4
6 13 COMPASSION SPIRIT B A Badel · K L Man 1 19.0 4-1/4
7 10 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT L Currie · J Size 4 8.3 4-3/4
8 5 CALL ME DANDY CP/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui 3 8.5 5
9 1 WINNER METHOD B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 13 53.0 5-1/4
10 7 MONTA FRUTTA H1/TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz 12 26.0 5-1/2
11 11 STAR MAC K C Leung · D A Hayes 14 112.0 5-3/4
12 14 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H T Mo · F C Lor 9 166.0 11-3/4
13 9 RAGNARR TT M F Poon · T P Yung 5 49.0 13-1/2
14 12 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 11 19.0 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALAXY PATCH2. THE HEIR+1.75L3. NORTHERN BEACHES+2L4. SOLID IMPACT+2.25L5. CELESTIAL COLOURS+2.75L6. COMPASSION SPIRIT+4.25L7. PINS PRINCE+4.75L8. CALL ME DANDY+5L9. WINNER METHOD+5.25L10. MONTA FRUTTA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GALAXY PATCH (14.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GALAXY PATCH 14.0% 7.12 1
2 8 NORTHERN BEACHES 11.2% 8.91 3
3 10 PINS PRINCE 11.0% 9.07 7
4 12 CALIFORNIA VANES 10.4% 9.57 14
5 6 THE HEIR 10.1% 9.93 2
6 1 WINNER METHOD 6.0% 16.64 9
7 13 COMPASSION SPIRIT 5.7% 17.52 6
8 7 MONTA FRUTTA 5.4% 18.59 10
9 5 CALL ME DANDY 4.8% 20.66 8
10 2 CELESTIAL COLOURS 4.5% 22.47 5
11 14 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 4.4% 22.75 12
12 11 STAR MAC 4.3% 23.41 11
13 9 RAGNARR 4.2% 23.93 13
14 3 SOLID IMPACT 4.0% 25.25 4
GALAXY PATCH — wonNORTHERN BEACHESPINS PRINCECALIFORNIA VANESTHE HEIRWINNER METHODCOMPASSION SPIRITMONTA FRUTTACALL ME DANDYCELESTIAL COLOURSEVERYONE'S VICTORYSTAR MACRAGNARRSOLID IMPACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 35.5

PLACE

4 17

6 52.5

8 15.5

QUINELLA

4,6 356

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 126

4,8 30

6,8 111

FORECAST

4,6 619

TIERCE

4,6,8 2,023

TRIO

4,6,8 258

FIRST 4

3,4,6,8 1,024

QUARTET

4,6,8,3 17,934

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

6/4 166

6/6 89