Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 09:20
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALAXY PATCH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-3/4, with THE HEIR second and NORTHERN BEACHES third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH B 1.08.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 10 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | THE HEIR C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | NORTHERN BEACHES Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | SOLID IMPACT B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 2 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | CELESTIAL COLOURS B1/TT1 L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 8 | 8.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 1 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | PINS PRINCE H/P/TT L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 4 | 8.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | CALL ME DANDY CP/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 3 | 8.5 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | WINNER METHOD B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 13 | 53.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MONTA FRUTTA H1/TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 12 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | STAR MAC K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 14 | 112.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H T Mo · F C Lor | H T Mo | F C Lor | 9 | 166.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | RAGNARR TT M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 5 | 49.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 11 | 19.0 | 18-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH | 14.0% | 7.12 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | NORTHERN BEACHES | 11.2% | 8.91 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | PINS PRINCE | 11.0% | 9.07 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | CALIFORNIA VANES | 10.4% | 9.57 | 14 |
| 5 | 6 | THE HEIR | 10.1% | 9.93 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | WINNER METHOD | 6.0% | 16.64 | 9 |
| 7 | 13 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 5.7% | 17.52 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | MONTA FRUTTA | 5.4% | 18.59 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | CALL ME DANDY | 4.8% | 20.66 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | CELESTIAL COLOURS | 4.5% | 22.47 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | EVERYONE'S VICTORY | 4.4% | 22.75 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | STAR MAC | 4.3% | 23.41 | 11 |
| 13 | 9 | RAGNARR | 4.2% | 23.93 | 13 |
| 14 | 3 | SOLID IMPACT | 4.0% | 25.25 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 35.5
PLACE
4 17
6 52.5
8 15.5
QUINELLA
4,6 356
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 126
4,8 30
6,8 111
FORECAST
4,6 619
TIERCE
4,6,8 2,023
TRIO
4,6,8 258
FIRST 4
3,4,6,8 1,024
QUARTET
4,6,8,3 17,934
All pools (1 more)
9TH DOUBLE
6/4 166
6/6 89