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Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 04:35

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STAR CLUB, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with DOUBLE WIN second and SUPER HIGHWAY third. The 1.8 favourite ROMANTIC HERO finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 STAR CLUB 1.09.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 7.8 3/4
2 6 DOUBLE WIN XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 62.0 3/4
3 1 SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 2 9.6 2-1/4
4 7 PATCH OF TIME TT1 Z Purton · K H Ting 4 8.3 2-3/4
5 5 COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT K C Leung · K L Man 7 45.0 3
6 8 ROMANTIC HERO XB1/TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum 1 1.8 3-1/4
7 3 PARTY WARRIOR L Hewitson · K W Lui 6 25.0 3-3/4
8 12 PROUD DRAGON V-/B2/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 27.0 5
9 13 THE GOOD DEAL SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 12 32.0 5-1/4
10 2 HAPPY MISSION XB-/P1/H2/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 13 43.0 5-1/4
11 4 ENNEA FORTUNE H-/TT A Badel · C H Yip 9 18.0 5-1/4
12 14 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 5 14.0 6-3/4
13 9 SUNNY SHINES A Hamelin · P C Ng 14 126.0 8-1/4
14 11 BEAUTY UNITY TT M L Yeung · J Richards 11 220.0 16-1/4
0 PRIDE OF EIGHT M F Poon · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR CLUB2. DOUBLE WIN+0.75L3. SUPER HIGHWAY+2.25L4. PATCH OF TIME+2.75L5. COMPASSION SUPER+3L6. ROMANTIC HERO+3.25L7. PARTY WARRIOR+3.75L8. PROUD DRAGON+5L9. THE GOOD DEAL+5.25L10. HAPPY MISSION+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PATCH OF TIME (26.2%) finished 4th — the winner STAR CLUB was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 PATCH OF TIME 26.2% 3.82 4
2 8 ROMANTIC HERO 15.7% 6.38 6
3 14 SMART LEADER 9.8% 10.17 12
4 12 PROUD DRAGON 7.9% 12.59 8
5 13 THE GOOD DEAL 6.8% 14.81 9
6 1 SUPER HIGHWAY 5.6% 17.93 3
7 3 PARTY WARRIOR 4.8% 20.74 7
8 10 STAR CLUB 4.6% 21.65 1
9 2 HAPPY MISSION 4.3% 23.25 10
10 4 ENNEA FORTUNE 4.1% 24.65 11
11 9 SUNNY SHINES 3.5% 28.83 13
12 6 DOUBLE WIN 3.1% 31.96 2
13 5 COMPASSION SUPER 3.1% 32.23 5
14 11 BEAUTY UNITY 0.6% 179.03 14
PATCH OF TIMEROMANTIC HEROSMART LEADERPROUD DRAGONTHE GOOD DEALSUPER HIGHWAYPARTY WARRIORSTAR CLUB — wonHAPPY MISSIONENNEA FORTUNESUNNY SHINESDOUBLE WINCOMPASSION SUPERBEAUTY UNITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 78.5

PLACE

1 21

6 115

10 20.5

QUINELLA

6,10 1,784.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 604

1,10 87.5

6,10 434

FORECAST

10,6 2,712

TIERCE

10,6,1 37,843

TRIO

1,6,10 5,527

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 6,506

QUARTET

10,6,1,7 181,258