Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 07:35

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by N, with VICTOR THE WINNER second and WELLINGTON third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.42

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	5	128 lb	1.3	N
2	6	VICTOR THE WINNER TT K Teetan · C S Shum	K Teetan	C S Shum	4	123 lb	10.0	N
3	2	WELLINGTON XB/TT2 A Badel · J Richards	A Badel	J Richards	1	128 lb	6.1	1
4	3	SIGHT SUCCESS E B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	7	123 lb	10.0	3-1/4
5	7	FANTASTIC TREASURE CP2/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	2	123 lb	59.0	3-3/4
6	4	DUKE WAI PC A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	3	123 lb	22.0	4-1/2
7	5	SUPER WEALTHY SR1/TT1 L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	6	123 lb	38.0	12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick LUCKY SWEYNESSE (57.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	LUCKY SWEYNESSE	57.5%	1.74	1	1.3
2	6	VICTOR THE WINNER	18.4%	5.44	2	10.0
3	3	SIGHT SUCCESS	6.1%	16.28	4	10.0
4	2	WELLINGTON	5.3%	18.84	3	6.1
5	4	DUKE WAI	5.0%	20.09	6	22.0
6	5	SUPER WEALTHY	4.1%	24.25	7	38.0
7	7	FANTASTIC TREASURE	3.6%	27.76	5	59.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 13

PLACE

1 10.1

2 16

6 20

QUINELLA

1,6 46.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 17

1,6 21.5

2,6 41

FORECAST

1,6 61

TIERCE

1,6,2 174

TRIO

1,2,6 50

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 42

QUARTET

1,6,2,3 433

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,8/1,2,6 2,148

6TH DOUBLE

7/1 68.5

7/6 101

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,6/6,7,8/1,2,6 73,314

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,6/6,7,8/Any Combination 1,466

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