Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 14:31
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LOST CHILD Closed strongly 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · C W Chang | B Avdulla | C W Chang | 4 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 7.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | DIVINE ERA H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 8 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | G LINER Closed strongly XB/H1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 12 | 51.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SMART FIGHTER Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 14 | 5.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | LUCKY FUN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 1 | 6.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly CP/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 11 | 71.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER B K De Melo · K L Man | K De Melo | K L Man | 7 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | MY INTELLIGENT Led early V/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 10 | 44.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | HO HO STAR TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 3 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | DARCI LEGEND Closed strongly XB M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 9 | 62.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 0 | SPEEDSTAR B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 6 | 9.4 | 9 |
| 14 | 0 | ARIEL CP-/B1/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 13 | 10.0 | 12-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LOST CHILD, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS second and CIRCUIT NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.3 favourite SMART FIGHTER finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SMART FIGHTER | 15.1% | 6.62 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | ARIEL | 10.7% | 9.33 | 14 |
| 3 | 0 | CIRCUIT NINE | 10.2% | 9.80 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | SPEEDSTAR | 10.0% | 9.98 | 13 |
| 5 | 0 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER | 8.6% | 11.61 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | LUCKY FUN | 8.4% | 11.90 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS | 6.7% | 14.97 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | DIVINE ERA | 6.2% | 16.24 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | LOST CHILD | 5.9% | 16.89 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | MY INTELLIGENT | 4.5% | 22.04 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | DARCI LEGEND | 4.2% | 23.74 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 4.0% | 24.81 | 8 |
| 13 | 0 | HO HO STAR | 3.1% | 32.09 | 11 |
| 14 | 0 | G LINER | 2.3% | 43.81 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 56.5
PLACE
2 41.5
3 19
6 25
QUINELLA
2,3 388.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 133.5
2,6 144.5
3,6 76.5
FORECAST
3,2 792
TIERCE
3,2,6 3,748
TRIO
2,3,6 792
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 1,818
QUARTET
3,2,6,4 44,256
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
4/8/2 176
4/8/3 621
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,8/2,3,6 53,840
4TH DOUBLE
8/2 52
8/3 263.5