Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-11-19 · 05:40

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-11-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RAGING BLIZZARD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with STRATHPEFFER second and GORGEOUS WIN third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RAGING BLIZZARD 1.08.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 11 2.4 1/2
2 12 STRATHPEFFER B K De Melo · D J Whyte 3 16.0 1/2
3 8 GORGEOUS WIN TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum 10 4.4 2
4 11 PRINCE CHISWICK XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu 6 5.6 2-1/2
5 7 FIGHTING MACHINE A Atzeni · P C Ng 7 31.0 3-3/4
6 13 CHARMANDER B/TT M F Poon · J Richards 8 73.0 4-1/4
7 6 DEVAS TWELVE TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 88.0 6-3/4
8 5 AWESOME TREASURE B2/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 11.0 6-3/4
9 10 COMMANDING MISSILE B/H C L Chau · C W Chang 4 17.0 9
10 1 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B L Ferraris · K W Lui 2 19.0 9-1/4
11 3 DIVINE SHINING BO/H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 178.0 10
12 14 PRESTIGE MOOCHI TT2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 1 132.0 11-1/4
13 2 VICTORY SCHOLARS V E C W Wong · C Fownes 14 16.0 11-1/4
14 9 JOYFUL SUPREME M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 13 184.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RAGING BLIZZARD2. STRATHPEFFER+0.5L3. GORGEOUS WIN+2L4. PRINCE CHISWICK+2.5L5. FIGHTING MACHINE+3.75L6. CHARMANDER+4.25L7. DEVAS TWELVE+6.75L8. AWESOME TREASURE+6.75L9. COMMANDING MISSILE+9L10. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RAGING BLIZZARD (20.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 RAGING BLIZZARD 20.5% 4.87 1
2 8 GORGEOUS WIN 15.7% 6.38 3
3 11 PRINCE CHISWICK 11.0% 9.12 4
4 5 AWESOME TREASURE 8.6% 11.65 8
5 7 FIGHTING MACHINE 8.4% 11.90 5
6 2 VICTORY SCHOLARS 8.0% 12.54 13
7 10 COMMANDING MISSILE 6.4% 15.59 9
8 12 STRATHPEFFER 6.3% 15.95 2
9 1 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 5.5% 18.30 10
10 13 CHARMANDER 3.6% 27.70 6
11 9 JOYFUL SUPREME 2.2% 45.32 14
12 6 DEVAS TWELVE 2.1% 47.97 7
13 3 DIVINE SHINING 1.1% 93.71 11
14 14 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 0.7% 133.75 12
RAGING BLIZZARD — wonGORGEOUS WINPRINCE CHISWICKAWESOME TREASUREFIGHTING MACHINEVICTORY SCHOLARSCOMMANDING MISSILESTRATHPEFFERHIGH RISE SOLDIERCHARMANDERJOYFUL SUPREMEDEVAS TWELVEDIVINE SHININGPRESTIGE MOOCHI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24.5

PLACE

4 13

8 20

12 35

QUINELLA

4,12 206.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 36.5

4,12 69.5

8,12 103.5

FORECAST

4,12 298

TIERCE

4,12,8 1,543

TRIO

4,8,12 359

FIRST 4

4,8,11,12 254

QUARTET

4,12,8,11 4,398

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,4/4,8,12 12,077

2ND DOUBLE

4/4 58

4/12 72