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Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 05:00

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DATA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with JUMBO FORTUNE second and EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.23.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B 1.23.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 3 3.3 1/2
2 2 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC/XB K De Melo · P C Ng 9 10.0 1/2
3 3 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 6.4 1-3/4
4 1 FUN N GLORY TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 60.0 1-3/4
5 6 PO ON WAY Closed strongly B M Barzalona · K H Ting 7 23.0 2-1/4
6 4 ARIEL B-/CP2/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 1 9.8 2-1/2
7 5 STAR CLUB Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 5 5.4 2-3/4
8 7 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 14 7.3 4
9 13 G LINER H/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 2 22.0 4-3/4
10 10 COMMANDING MISSILE Closed strongly B-/H A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 110.0 6
11 14 HERO ICON TT A Badel · K L Man 8 33.0 8-3/4
12 12 BULB PRINCE Closed strongly H-/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 116.0 9
13 8 FANCY STAR P/TT L Currie · C Fownes 13 133.0 18-1/2
14 11 MASSIVE TALENT Led early CP1 L Hewitson · M Newnham 6 12.0 22-3/4
0 ROMANTIC HERO J McDonald · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DATA2. JUMBO FORTUNE+0.5L3. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+1.75L4. FUN N GLORY+1.75L5. PO ON WAY+2.25L6. ARIEL+2.5L7. STAR CLUB+2.75L8. CIRCUIT NINE+4L9. G LINER+4.75L10. COMMANDING MISSILE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CIRCUIT NINE (16.7%) finished 8th — the winner WINNING DATA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CIRCUIT NINE 16.7% 6.00 8
2 9 WINNING DATA 13.8% 7.23 1
3 5 STAR CLUB 10.2% 9.82 7
4 4 ARIEL 9.6% 10.43 6
5 3 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 9.6% 10.45 3
6 2 JUMBO FORTUNE 8.2% 12.26 2
7 13 G LINER 7.7% 12.97 9
8 11 MASSIVE TALENT 5.9% 16.84 14
9 10 COMMANDING MISSILE 5.1% 19.71 10
10 14 HERO ICON 4.9% 20.45 11
11 1 FUN N GLORY 3.7% 27.18 4
12 6 PO ON WAY 2.2% 45.95 5
13 12 BULB PRINCE 2.1% 48.63 12
14 8 FANCY STAR 0.5% 207.95 13
CIRCUIT NINEWINNING DATA — wonSTAR CLUBARIELEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSJUMBO FORTUNEG LINERMASSIVE TALENTCOMMANDING MISSILEHERO ICONFUN N GLORYPO ON WAYBULB PRINCEFANCY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 33

PLACE

2 30

3 28

9 16.5

QUINELLA

2,9 256

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 118

2,9 89.5

3,9 59

FORECAST

9,2 378

TIERCE

9,2,3 1,461

TRIO

2,3,9 389

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 3,100

QUARTET

9,2,3,1 39,267

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/2 33.5

6/9 63.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,13/2,3,9 6,929