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Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 12:56

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B 1.23.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 3 3.3 1/2
2 0 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC/XB K De Melo · P C Ng 9 10.0 1/2
3 0 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 6.4 1-3/4
4 0 FUN N GLORY TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 60.0 1-3/4
5 0 PO ON WAY Closed strongly B M Barzalona · K H Ting 7 23.0 2-1/4
6 0 ARIEL B-/CP2/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 1 9.8 2-1/2
7 0 STAR CLUB Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 5 5.4 2-3/4
8 0 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 14 7.3 4
9 0 G LINER H/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 2 22.0 4-3/4
10 0 COMMANDING MISSILE Closed strongly B-/H A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 110.0 6
11 0 HERO ICON TT A Badel · K L Man 8 33.0 8-3/4
12 0 BULB PRINCE Closed strongly H-/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 116.0 9
13 0 FANCY STAR P/TT L Currie · C Fownes 13 133.0 18-1/2
14 0 MASSIVE TALENT Led early CP1 L Hewitson · M Newnham 6 12.0 22-3/4
— 0 ROMANTIC HERO J McDonald · C S Shum — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DATA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with JUMBO FORTUNE second and EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DATA—2. JUMBO FORTUNE+0.5L3. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+1.75L4. FUN N GLORY+1.75L5. PO ON WAY+2.25L6. ARIEL+2.5L7. STAR CLUB+2.75L8. CIRCUIT NINE+4L9. G LINER+4.75L10. COMMANDING MISSILE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CIRCUIT NINE (16.7%) finished 8th — the winner WINNING DATA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CIRCUIT NINE 16.7% 6.00 8
2 0 WINNING DATA 13.8% 7.23 1
3 0 STAR CLUB 10.2% 9.82 7
4 0 ARIEL 9.6% 10.43 6
5 0 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 9.6% 10.45 3
6 0 JUMBO FORTUNE 8.2% 12.26 2
7 0 G LINER 7.7% 12.97 9
8 0 MASSIVE TALENT 5.9% 16.84 14
9 0 COMMANDING MISSILE 5.1% 19.71 10
10 0 HERO ICON 4.9% 20.45 11
11 0 FUN N GLORY 3.7% 27.18 4
12 0 PO ON WAY 2.2% 45.95 5
13 0 BULB PRINCE 2.1% 48.63 12
14 0 FANCY STAR 0.5% 207.95 13
CIRCUIT NINEWINNING DATA — wonSTAR CLUBARIELEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSJUMBO FORTUNEG LINERMASSIVE TALENTCOMMANDING MISSILEHERO ICONFUN N GLORYPO ON WAYBULB PRINCEFANCY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 33

PLACE

2 30

3 28

9 16.5

QUINELLA

2,9 256

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 118

2,9 89.5

3,9 59

FORECAST

9,2 378

TIERCE

9,2,3 1,461

TRIO

2,3,9 389

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 3,100

QUARTET

9,2,3,1 39,267

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/2 33.5

6/9 63.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,13/2,3,9 6,929