Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 06:55
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with LUCKY WITH YOU second and WELLINGTON third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.09.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 5 | 1.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | LUCKY WITH YOU A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 2 | 37.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | WELLINGTON XB/B1/TT A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 3 | 8.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | VICTOR THE WINNER TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 4 | 8.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | DUKE WAI PC K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 10 | 55.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | HIGHFIELD PRINCESS XB J Hart · J Quinn | J Hart | J Quinn | 9 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | JASPER KRONE Y Kawada · H Mori | Y Kawada | H Mori | 8 | 69.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | MAD COOL TT C Demuro · M Ikezoe | C Demuro | M Ikezoe | 7 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | SIGHT SUCCESS E B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 28.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | AESOP'S FABLES B/XB R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 1 | 33.0 | 6 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 41.2% | 2.43 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | VICTOR THE WINNER | 14.4% | 6.95 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | AESOP'S FABLES | 12.3% | 8.16 | 10 |
| 4 | 2 | WELLINGTON | 6.7% | 14.82 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | JASPER KRONE | 6.1% | 16.28 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | HIGHFIELD PRINCESS | 4.9% | 20.48 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | MAD COOL | 4.3% | 23.52 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | DUKE WAI | 3.7% | 26.74 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 3.3% | 29.99 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 3.1% | 32.32 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 13.5
PLACE
1 10.1
2 17.5
9 50.5
QUINELLA
1,9 149.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 17.5
1,9 55
2,9 148.5
FORECAST
1,9 171
TIERCE
1,9,2 656
TRIO
1,2,9 181
FIRST 4
1,2,5,9 179
QUARTET
1,9,2,5 2,954
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
6/1/1 1,674
6/1/9 6,177
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 220.5
1/9 765