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Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 05:40

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with GLOBAL HARMONY second and BEAUTY CRESCENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite SIMPLE HEDGE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.22.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 8 17.0 1/2
2 9 GLOBAL HARMONY Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 7 4.2 1/2
3 4 BEAUTY CRESCENT Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 14 9.7 1/2
4 11 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP K De Melo · D J Hall 9 18.0 1
5 8 ACCOLADE START Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 4 146.0 1-1/4
6 14 BEER PALACE Closed strongly L Currie · M Newnham 2 143.0 1-1/2
7 13 READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 24.0 1-1/2
8 5 AMAZING VICTORY H/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 6 6.8 2
9 7 SIMPLE HEDGE Z Purton · J Size 5 3.9 2-1/4
10 12 LOST CHILD B Avdulla · C W Chang 10 8.6 2-1/4
11 2 PRIME MINISTER TT2 M Barzalona · P F Yiu 11 43.0 3-1/2
12 3 TAMRA BLITZ Led early CP/H/SR A Hamelin · D J Whyte 3 12.0 3-3/4
13 10 CAPITAL DELIGHT TT J Moreira · C Fownes 13 11.0 6
— 1 SUPERB BOY C Y Ho · K W Lui — — —

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT—2. GLOBAL HARMONY+0.5L3. BEAUTY CRESCENT+0.5L4. LET'S DO IT+1L5. ACCOLADE START+1.25L6. BEER PALACE+1.5L7. READY TO WIN+1.5L8. AMAZING VICTORY+2L9. SIMPLE HEDGE+2.25L10. LOST CHILD+2.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SIMPLE HEDGE (25.6%) finished 9th — the winner CHIU CHOW SPIRIT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SIMPLE HEDGE 25.6% 3.91 9
2 9 GLOBAL HARMONY 14.1% 7.11 2
3 10 CAPITAL DELIGHT 13.9% 7.19 13
4 3 TAMRA BLITZ 7.3% 13.79 12
5 12 LOST CHILD 7.1% 14.18 10
6 4 BEAUTY CRESCENT 6.5% 15.28 3
7 5 AMAZING VICTORY 5.9% 17.07 8
8 11 LET'S DO IT 5.6% 17.88 4
9 13 READY TO WIN 5.5% 18.02 7
10 6 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 5.2% 19.33 1
11 2 PRIME MINISTER 2.3% 43.75 11
12 14 BEER PALACE 0.6% 166.96 6
13 8 ACCOLADE START 0.5% 183.79 5
SIMPLE HEDGEGLOBAL HARMONYCAPITAL DELIGHTTAMRA BLITZLOST CHILDBEAUTY CRESCENTAMAZING VICTORYLET'S DO ITREADY TO WINCHIU CHOW SPIRIT — wonPRIME MINISTERBEER PALACEACCOLADE START

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 174

PLACE

4 34

6 40.5

9 17.5

QUINELLA

6,9 309

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 271

4,9 103

6,9 103.5

FORECAST

6,9 778

TIERCE

6,9,4 9,639

TRIO

4,6,9 1,408

FIRST 4

4,6,9,11 4,647

QUARTET

6,9,4,11 124,651

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/6 429

9/9 15.5

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99