Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 07:30
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Class 3 over 1800m. C P BRAVE, ridden by M Barzalona and trained by P F Yiu, won by 4-1/4, with ROMANTIC CHARM second and SWEET ENCOUNTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite ENSUED finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly V 1.48.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 5 | 8.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | ROMANTIC CHARM Closed strongly B-/V1/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 3 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly B- A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 9 | 60.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | AWESOME FLUKE Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 13 | 6.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 11 | 24.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | SWAN BAY Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 7 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | ENSUED B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 2 | 2.7 | 8-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | S J TOURBILLON CP-/SR-/XB/B2/TT W Buick · D J Whyte | W Buick | D J Whyte | 10 | 32.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 21.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | UNIVERSAL HORIZON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 14 | 11.0 | 14 |
| 12 | 13 | ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE TT K De Melo · D A Hayes | K De Melo | D A Hayes | 1 | 209.0 | 17 |
| 13 | 4 | ENIGMA TT1 M Guyon · A S Cruz | M Guyon | A S Cruz | 12 | 81.0 | 17-1/2 |
| 14 | 3 | SILVER KING Led early XB/TT J McDonald · F C Lor | J McDonald | F C Lor | 8 | 8.6 | 22 |
| — | 0 | DEVILDOM C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | BIG RED M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ENSUED | 20.6% | 4.85 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | AWESOME FLUKE | 14.1% | 7.10 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | UNIVERSAL HORIZON | 13.2% | 7.58 | 11 |
| 4 | 9 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 10.0% | 10.00 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | SILVER KING | 9.8% | 10.16 | 14 |
| 6 | 7 | SWAN BAY | 5.6% | 17.86 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | ROMANTIC CHARM | 5.3% | 18.96 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 4.0% | 25.09 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | ENIGMA | 3.8% | 26.27 | 13 |
| 10 | 12 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 3.7% | 27.34 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | C P BRAVE | 3.6% | 27.79 | 1 |
| 12 | 14 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 3.0% | 32.90 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | S J TOURBILLON | 2.6% | 38.09 | 9 |
| 14 | 13 | ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE | 0.7% | 143.79 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 89.5
PLACE
5 126.5
8 51.5
10 27.5
QUINELLA
8,10 949.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 1,213.5
5,10 561.5
8,10 268
FORECAST
10,8 1,792
TIERCE
10,8,5 50,496
TRIO
5,8,10 12,236
FIRST 4
1,5,8,10 32,711
QUARTET
10,8,5,1 955,170
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,9/5,8,10 1,200,595
5TH DOUBLE
1/8 92.5
1/10 144
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,3,9/1,2,9/Any Combination 1,673