Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 14:11
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JUNKO Closed strongly 2.30.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Guyon · A Fabre | M Guyon | A Fabre | 7 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | ZEFFIRO Closed strongly D Lane · Y Ikee | D Lane | Y Ikee | 2 | 5.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | WARM HEART R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 1 | 3.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | GERALDINA W Buick · T Saito | W Buick | T Saito | 5 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SENOR TOBA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 46.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | FIVE G PATCH TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 8 | 54.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | LA CITY BLANCHE Led early H-/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 4 | 28.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LEBENSSTIL J Moreira · H Tanaka | J Moreira | H Tanaka | 6 | 2.3 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 0 | WEST WIND BLOWS J McDonald · S & E Crisford | J McDonald | S & E Crisford | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. JUNKO, ridden by M Guyon and trained by A Fabre, won by 1, with ZEFFIRO second and WARM HEART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite LEBENSSTIL finished 8th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 19.2% | 5.20 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | WARM HEART | 18.2% | 5.49 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | LEBENSSTIL | 15.5% | 6.44 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | FIVE G PATCH | 14.0% | 7.14 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | SENOR TOBA | 13.7% | 7.30 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | JUNKO | 8.4% | 11.93 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | ZEFFIRO | 6.0% | 16.72 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | GERALDINA | 5.0% | 20.18 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 55.5
PLACE
1 19
3 17
9 14
QUINELLA
1,3 179
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 46
1,9 28
3,9 32.5
FORECAST
1,3 390
TIERCE
1,3,9 1,125
TRIO
1,3,9 163
FIRST 4
1,3,7,9 281
QUARTET
1,3,9,7 8,813
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,9/1,3,9 31,970
3RD DOUBLE
6/1 1,108.5
6/3 159