Sha Tin · 2023-12-10 · 06:15

Race 4

Group 1 GOOD 2400m Course A 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-10 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. JUNKO, ridden by M Guyon and trained by A Fabre, won by 1, with ZEFFIRO second and WARM HEART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite LEBENSSTIL finished 8th.

Result

Official · 2.30.12

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	JUNKO Closed strongly 2.30.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Guyon · A Fabre	M Guyon	A Fabre	7	126 lb	5.5	1
2	3	ZEFFIRO Closed strongly D Lane · Y Ikee	D Lane	Y Ikee	2	126 lb	5.6	1
3	9	WARM HEART R Moore · A P O'Brien	R Moore	A P O'Brien	1	117 lb	3.4	3-1/4
4	7	GERALDINA W Buick · T Saito	W Buick	T Saito	5	122 lb	17.0	3-3/4
5	2	SENOR TOBA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	3	126 lb	46.0	5-1/4
6	4	FIVE G PATCH TT A Badel · A S Cruz	A Badel	A S Cruz	8	126 lb	54.0	7-1/2
7	6	LA CITY BLANCHE Led early H-/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	4	126 lb	28.0	9-1/4
8	8	LEBENSSTIL J Moreira · H Tanaka	J Moreira	H Tanaka	6	121 lb	2.3	12-3/4
—	5	WEST WIND BLOWS J McDonald · S & E Crisford	J McDonald	S & E Crisford	—	126 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick LA CITY BLANCHE (19.2%) finished 7th — the winner JUNKO was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	LA CITY BLANCHE	19.2%	5.20	7	28.0
2	9	WARM HEART	18.2%	5.49	3	3.4
3	8	LEBENSSTIL	15.5%	6.44	8	2.3
4	4	FIVE G PATCH	14.0%	7.14	6	54.0
5	2	SENOR TOBA	13.7%	7.30	5	46.0
6	1	JUNKO	8.4%	11.93	1	5.5
7	3	ZEFFIRO	6.0%	16.72	2	5.6
8	7	GERALDINA	5.0%	20.18	4	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 55.5

PLACE

1 19

3 17

9 14

QUINELLA

1,3 179

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 46

1,9 28

3,9 32.5

FORECAST

1,3 390

TIERCE

1,3,9 1,125

TRIO

1,3,9 163

FIRST 4

1,3,7,9 281

QUARTET

1,3,9,7 8,813

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,9/1,3,9 31,970

3RD DOUBLE

6/1 1,108.5

6/3 159

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