Sha Tin · 2023-12-23 · 06:05
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. THE ABSOLUTE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with SUPER LEGENDS second and CHATER GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite SUPER LEGENDS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | THE ABSOLUTE Closed strongly TT 1.23.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 4 | 6.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | SUPER LEGENDS Closed strongly B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 6 | 1.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | CHATER GOLD Led early K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 5 | 30.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | NEW POWER H M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 3 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | FRUITY WARRIOR Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 24.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 45.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | FLYING ROMANTIC J McDonald · D J Hall | J McDonald | D J Hall | 10 | 9.4 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly XB1 K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 7 | 15.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | THE CONCENTRATION Closed strongly H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 9 | 130.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | E GLORY K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 1 | 99.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | SUNNY SHINES Closed strongly A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 14 | 84.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 13 | LADY BILLIE H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 110.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | HERO WARRIOR C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 71.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 14 | 6 | GOOD HAPPY HEART L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 12 | 24.0 | 18-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPER LEGENDS | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | THE ABSOLUTE | 9.5% | 10.48 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | FLYING ROMANTIC | 8.8% | 11.41 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY | 8.2% | 12.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | GOOD HAPPY HEART | 5.6% | 17.72 | 14 |
| 6 | 8 | NEW POWER | 5.0% | 20.11 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | WINNING SEVEN | 4.7% | 21.47 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | HERO WARRIOR | 3.8% | 26.65 | 13 |
| 9 | 5 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 3.8% | 26.65 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | CHATER GOLD | 2.3% | 44.01 | 3 |
| 11 | 13 | LADY BILLIE | 1.4% | 71.06 | 12 |
| 12 | 14 | E GLORY | 1.3% | 78.97 | 10 |
| 13 | 12 | THE CONCENTRATION | 1.1% | 87.47 | 9 |
| 14 | 9 | SUNNY SHINES | 1.0% | 101.88 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 65.5
PLACE
1 10.5
3 54.5
10 19
QUINELLA
1,10 67.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 85
1,10 29.5
3,10 232.5
FORECAST
10,1 227
TIERCE
10,1,3 2,448
TRIO
1,3,10 435
FIRST 4
1,3,8,10 632
QUARTET
10,1,3,8 15,731
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
12/1 34.5
12/10 570.5