Sha Tin · 2023-12-23 · 08:10
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-23 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ENSUED, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with FIVE G PATCH second and WOODFIRE BRO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ENSUED Closed strongly 2.01.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 9 | 2.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 6 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | WOODFIRE BRO TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 8 | 5.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/XB A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 1 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BOURBONAIRE Led early H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 4 | 28.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 5 | 9.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | LOOKING GREAT TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 69.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | AWESOME FLUKE TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 10 | 11.0 | 17 |
| 10 | 5 | RISE BRETHREN TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 2 | 5.2 | 27-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | RISE BRETHREN | 26.9% | 3.72 | 10 |
| 2 | 10 | ENSUED | 20.3% | 4.93 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | FIVE G PATCH | 11.2% | 8.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | AWESOME FLUKE | 9.6% | 10.44 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | WOODFIRE BRO | 7.7% | 13.05 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 7.7% | 13.06 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 6.2% | 16.10 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 4.3% | 23.40 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | BOURBONAIRE | 3.2% | 31.32 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | LOOKING GREAT | 3.0% | 33.60 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 27
PLACE
2 25
9 21.5
10 14
QUINELLA
2,10 111
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 86
2,10 45.5
9,10 36
FORECAST
10,2 154
TIERCE
10,2,9 665
TRIO
2,9,10 196
FIRST 4
2,6,9,10 635
QUARTET
10,2,9,6 6,511
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
10/2 35
10/10 82.5