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Sha Tin · 2023-12-23 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL HUNTER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with ARMOUR WAR EAGLE second and SWIFT ASCEND third. The 2.9 favourite I GIVE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 JOYFUL HUNTER XB 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 4.3 N
2 7 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE H1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 145.0 N
3 11 SWIFT ASCEND XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 21.0 1
4 9 CAPITAL LEGEND TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 5 14.0 1-1/2
5 3 I GIVE A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 2.9 1-1/2
6 2 COTTON FINGERS TT J McDonald · W Y So 2 2.9 2
7 8 MAGNIFICENT NINE H1 Z Purton · J Size 10 15.0 2-3/4
8 4 WINGS OF WAR B/TT K De Melo · J Richards 8 21.0 4
9 10 SPEED SWORD TT A Badel · F C Lor 1 31.0 6
10 5 PULSAR STRIDER TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 7 74.0 7-1/4
11 1 TRUE GENIUS H1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 92.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOYFUL HUNTER2. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+0.05L3. SWIFT ASCEND+1L4. CAPITAL LEGEND+1.5L5. I GIVE+1.5L6. COTTON FINGERS+2L7. MAGNIFICENT NINE+2.75L8. WINGS OF WAR+4L9. SPEED SWORD+6L10. PULSAR STRIDER+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick I GIVE (29.0%) finished 5th — the winner JOYFUL HUNTER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 I GIVE 29.0% 3.44 5
2 2 COTTON FINGERS 17.0% 5.90 6
3 6 JOYFUL HUNTER 11.5% 8.70 1
4 8 MAGNIFICENT NINE 10.6% 9.41 7
5 10 SPEED SWORD 7.2% 13.85 9
6 9 CAPITAL LEGEND 7.1% 14.06 4
7 11 SWIFT ASCEND 5.7% 17.57 3
8 4 WINGS OF WAR 4.9% 20.36 8
9 1 TRUE GENIUS 3.4% 29.71 11
10 5 PULSAR STRIDER 2.0% 49.42 10
11 7 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 1.6% 63.69 2
I GIVECOTTON FINGERSJOYFUL HUNTER — wonMAGNIFICENT NINESPEED SWORDCAPITAL LEGENDSWIFT ASCENDWINGS OF WARTRUE GENIUSPULSAR STRIDERARMOUR WAR EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 43

PLACE

6 15.5

7 220

11 39.5

QUINELLA

6,7 2,498.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 782.5

6,11 90

7,11 1,779

FORECAST

6,7 3,862

TIERCE

6,7,11 45,683

TRIO

6,7,11 11,223

FIRST 4

6,7,9,11 12,661

QUARTET

6,7,11,9 262,990

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,10/6,7,11 307,683

7TH DOUBLE

10/6 141.5

10/7 504