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Sha Tin · 2023-12-23 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-23 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. STARSHIP EIGHTY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-3/4, with ANGELS HUNTER second and DRAGON DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite PRECISION GOAL finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.36.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT 1.36.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 1 5.4 1-3/4
2 13 ANGELS HUNTER Closed strongly V-/B2/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 4 8.8 1-3/4
3 1 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B- E C W Wong · D A Hayes 6 12.0 2
4 4 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 5 14.0 2
5 3 BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 14.0 2-3/4
6 10 PRECISION GOAL Led early TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 4.7 3
7 2 SUPER CONTENTED Closed strongly TT K De Melo · C Fownes 9 10.0 3
8 7 BAEBAE TSOI CP2/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 3 44.0 4-1/4
9 9 BRILLIANT PIONEER PC1/TT2 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 11 13.0 4-1/4
10 8 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM XB-/H/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 14 48.0 5
11 5 MASTER OF LUCK B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 15.0 7
12 6 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Z Purton · C W Chang 10 8.0 7-1/2
13 14 HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · W Y So 12 23.0 7-1/2
14 12 DEVIL AND GOLD Y L Chung · C H Yip 7 24.0 14
0 DARCI LEGEND C Y Ho · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STARSHIP EIGHTY2. ANGELS HUNTER+1.75L3. DRAGON DELIGHT+2L4. UNITED ENDEAVORS+2L5. BOOM ALLIANCE+2.75L6. PRECISION GOAL+3L7. SUPER CONTENTED+3L8. BAEBAE TSOI+4.25L9. BRILLIANT PIONEER+4.25L10. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STARSHIP EIGHTY (25.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 STARSHIP EIGHTY 25.8% 3.87 1
2 3 BOOM ALLIANCE 14.8% 6.75 5
3 10 PRECISION GOAL 8.1% 12.28 6
4 6 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 7.8% 12.84 12
5 13 ANGELS HUNTER 7.3% 13.69 2
6 5 MASTER OF LUCK 6.6% 15.04 11
7 14 HANG'S CHOICE 5.1% 19.65 13
8 2 SUPER CONTENTED 5.1% 19.74 7
9 9 BRILLIANT PIONEER 4.7% 21.26 9
10 12 DEVIL AND GOLD 3.9% 25.86 14
11 1 DRAGON DELIGHT 3.6% 27.96 3
12 4 UNITED ENDEAVORS 3.5% 28.96 4
13 7 BAEBAE TSOI 2.0% 50.40 8
14 8 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 1.8% 56.68 10
STARSHIP EIGHTY — wonBOOM ALLIANCEPRECISION GOALPRESIDENT'S CHOICEANGELS HUNTERMASTER OF LUCKHANG'S CHOICESUPER CONTENTEDBRILLIANT PIONEERDEVIL AND GOLDDRAGON DELIGHTUNITED ENDEAVORSBAEBAE TSOIARTHUR'S KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 54

PLACE

1 34

11 20.5

13 29.5

QUINELLA

11,13 223.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 95.5

1,13 155.5

11,13 83.5

FORECAST

11,13 436

TIERCE

11,13,1 3,707

TRIO

1,11,13 695

FIRST 4

1,4,11,13 2,220

QUARTET

11,13,1,4 38,139

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/1,11,13 34,708

3RD DOUBLE

10/11 498.5

10/13 99.5