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Sha Tin · 2023-12-23 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FIGHTING MACHINE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with PERFETTO second and HAPPY FOR ALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.23.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR 1.23.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 3 2.0 3/4
2 3 PERFETTO Closed strongly A Hamelin · D J Hall 11 24.0 3/4
3 4 HAPPY FOR ALL Closed strongly H-/B/TT K C Leung · J Richards 6 19.0 3/4
4 2 SOLID SHALAA Closed strongly B-/TT J McDonald · D A Hayes 2 6.6 3/4
5 11 DEVAS TWELVE TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 22.0 2
6 9 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly XB-/B K De Melo · P F Yiu 1 6.6 2-1/4
7 5 ISLAND GOLDEN TT L Hewitson · K L Man 13 33.0 3-1/2
8 14 MAXIMIZE HEART Closed strongly V A Atzeni · C H Yip 7 41.0 4-1/4
9 13 NATURAL GOLD Led early B-/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 8 11.0 4-1/2
10 7 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Closed strongly B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 132.0 9-1/4
11 8 SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB K Teetan · K H Ting 10 10.0 9-3/4
12 12 RED MAVERICK H T Mo · Y S Tsui 12 128.0 10
13 1 SUPER TEN XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 14 58.0 14
14 6 BEYOND TURBO B1/TT1 C L Chau · C S Shum 4 90.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIGHTING MACHINE2. PERFETTO+0.75L3. HAPPY FOR ALL+0.75L4. SOLID SHALAA+0.75L5. DEVAS TWELVE+2L6. VOLCANIC SPARK+2.25L7. ISLAND GOLDEN+3.5L8. MAXIMIZE HEART+4.25L9. NATURAL GOLD+4.5L10. HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FIGHTING MACHINE (19.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 FIGHTING MACHINE 19.1% 5.24 1
2 2 SOLID SHALAA 14.4% 6.96 4
3 13 NATURAL GOLD 11.1% 9.00 9
4 8 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.7% 10.35 11
5 9 VOLCANIC SPARK 8.5% 11.79 6
6 6 BEYOND TURBO 7.9% 12.66 14
7 4 HAPPY FOR ALL 6.9% 14.59 3
8 5 ISLAND GOLDEN 6.7% 14.83 7
9 3 PERFETTO 5.9% 16.99 2
10 14 MAXIMIZE HEART 4.4% 22.53 8
11 11 DEVAS TWELVE 2.5% 40.31 5
12 1 SUPER TEN 1.4% 69.88 13
13 7 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 0.8% 125.76 10
14 12 RED MAVERICK 0.8% 131.91 12
FIGHTING MACHINE — wonSOLID SHALAANATURAL GOLDSMILING COLLECTORVOLCANIC SPARKBEYOND TURBOHAPPY FOR ALLISLAND GOLDENPERFETTOMAXIMIZE HEARTDEVAS TWELVESUPER TENHAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERRED MAVERICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 20.5

PLACE

3 48

4 43

10 11.5

QUINELLA

3,10 287.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 350.5

3,10 100

4,10 71

FORECAST

10,3 423

TIERCE

10,3,4 3,812

TRIO

3,4,10 1,202

FIRST 4

2,3,4,10 1,270

QUARTET

10,3,4,2 20,655

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,7/3,4,10 46,945

5TH DOUBLE

2/3 138

2/10 156

TRIPLE TRIO

1,11,13/2,5,7/3,4,10 3,160,135

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,11,13/2,5,7/Any Combination 2,872