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Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MIRACLES, ridden by J McDonald and trained by K L Man, won by 3-1/2, with SUPER JOY second and PRESTIGE MOOCHI third. The 4.6 favourite DAY DAY RICH finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MIRACLES B 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · K L Man 11 4.9 3-1/2
2 11 SUPER JOY B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 2 4.8 3-1/2
3 2 PRESTIGE MOOCHI TT K H Chan · C H Yip 8 49.0 4
4 6 HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 7.6 4-1/2
5 3 RATTAN WORLD B-/PC1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 5 5.8 5
6 5 GOODMANSHIP B/TT K C Leung · D J Whyte 9 37.0 6-1/2
7 8 MODEST GENTLEMAN B-/PC2/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 10 12.0 8-1/2
8 12 SUPER HORNET B-/XB/PC1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 7 72.0 11-1/2
9 1 MAGIC TRAVELLER B1/TT K De Melo · W Y So 12 82.0 12
10 4 DIAMOND FOREVER B1/TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 16.0 18
11 10 DAY DAY RICH B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 1 4.6 19-3/4
12 9 CALL ME TEDDY SR1/B2/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 6 14.0 22

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIRACLES2. SUPER JOY+3.5L3. PRESTIGE MOOCHI+4L4. HAPPY TANGO+4.5L5. RATTAN WORLD+5L6. GOODMANSHIP+6.5L7. MODEST GENTLEMAN+8.5L8. SUPER HORNET+11.5L9. MAGIC TRAVELLER+12L10. DIAMOND FOREVER+18L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RATTAN WORLD (25.1%) finished 5th — the winner MIRACLES was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 RATTAN WORLD 25.1% 3.98 5
2 6 HAPPY TANGO 12.8% 7.78 4
3 11 SUPER JOY 11.4% 8.77 2
4 7 MIRACLES 9.4% 10.65 1
5 8 MODEST GENTLEMAN 7.8% 12.77 7
6 4 DIAMOND FOREVER 7.5% 13.25 10
7 10 DAY DAY RICH 7.3% 13.64 11
8 5 GOODMANSHIP 5.8% 17.26 6
9 12 SUPER HORNET 4.3% 23.06 8
10 9 CALL ME TEDDY 3.6% 27.79 12
11 1 MAGIC TRAVELLER 2.7% 37.08 9
12 2 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 2.1% 47.80 3
RATTAN WORLDHAPPY TANGOSUPER JOYMIRACLES — wonMODEST GENTLEMANDIAMOND FOREVERDAY DAY RICHGOODMANSHIPSUPER HORNETCALL ME TEDDYMAGIC TRAVELLERPRESTIGE MOOCHI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 49.5

PLACE

2 112.5

7 22.5

11 20

QUINELLA

7,11 179

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 490

2,11 312

7,11 71.5

FORECAST

7,11 370

TIERCE

7,11,2 12,390

TRIO

2,7,11 1,685

FIRST 4

2,6,7,11 2,494

QUARTET

7,11,2,6 78,072