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Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 09:50

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with FLAMINGO TRILLION second and SIMPLE HEDGE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly B/XB 1.34.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 3.4 3/4
2 11 FLAMINGO TRILLION Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 9 8.2 3/4
3 2 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · J Size 7 6.9 1
4 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly B1/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 11 12.0 2-1/4
5 12 BEER PALACE Closed strongly B1 K Teetan · M Newnham 3 14.0 4-1/4
6 5 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 14.0 4-3/4
7 7 BILLIONAIRE SECRET H/PC/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng 1 6.4 4-3/4
8 9 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC/XB A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 7.4 5-1/4
9 6 HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly H1/TT1 J McDonald · W K Mo 4 47.0 5-1/4
10 3 ACCOLADE START TT C L Chau · C S Shum 12 39.0 9
11 14 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 14 83.0 10-1/4
12 10 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP K De Melo · D J Hall 13 28.0 12-1/2
13 8 I KEEP WINNING L Ferraris · T P Yung 8 110.0 17
14 13 CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT A Badel · K L Man 10 23.0 38-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG GLORY2. FLAMINGO TRILLION+0.75L3. SIMPLE HEDGE+1L4. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+2.25L5. BEER PALACE+4.25L6. POWERFUL WINGS+4.75L7. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+4.75L8. JUMBO FORTUNE+5.25L9. HAKKA RADIANCE+5.25L10. ACCOLADE START+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHANCHENG GLORY (21.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CHANCHENG GLORY 21.7% 4.62 1
2 2 SIMPLE HEDGE 18.5% 5.41 3
3 9 JUMBO FORTUNE 12.2% 8.18 8
4 7 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 11.6% 8.65 7
5 6 HAKKA RADIANCE 6.6% 15.18 9
6 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 5.8% 17.26 4
7 5 POWERFUL WINGS 4.8% 20.68 6
8 11 FLAMINGO TRILLION 4.3% 23.39 2
9 10 LET'S DO IT 3.6% 27.62 12
10 8 I KEEP WINNING 2.8% 36.04 13
11 12 BEER PALACE 2.6% 38.50 5
12 13 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 2.4% 40.84 14
13 3 ACCOLADE START 1.6% 62.01 10
14 14 RED MAJESTY 1.5% 65.49 11
CHANCHENG GLORY — wonSIMPLE HEDGEJUMBO FORTUNEBILLIONAIRE SECRETHAKKA RADIANCEFLAGSHIP WARRIORPOWERFUL WINGSFLAMINGO TRILLIONLET'S DO ITI KEEP WINNINGBEER PALACECIRCUIT MIGHTYACCOLADE STARTRED MAJESTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 34

PLACE

2 25.5

4 16.5

11 29

QUINELLA

4,11 215.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 55

2,11 110.5

4,11 81

FORECAST

4,11 348

TIERCE

4,11,2 3,034

TRIO

2,4,11 506

FIRST 4

1,2,4,11 1,581

QUARTET

4,11,2,1 29,622

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

10/10/4 471

10/10/11 520

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,10/2,4,11 193,248

9TH DOUBLE

10/4 167.5

10/11 170.5

SIX UP

6,8/6,10/2,11/9,10/7,10/4,11 42,383

1 [K W Lui]

7 [L Hewitson]