Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 05:35
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NOBLE ONE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with TSUEN WAN GLORY second and FORTUNE MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NOBLE ONE Closed strongly B2 1.22.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 3 | 3.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | TSUEN WAN GLORY Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 8 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 4 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | FIRE BALL Closed strongly CP J McDonald · C H Yip | J McDonald | C H Yip | 7 | 4.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT K De Melo · A S Cruz | K De Melo | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 2 | 8.5 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | H Z TOURBILLON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | GO GO GO Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 10 | 6.7 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | COMPULSORY CP-/XB-/B2 M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 5 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | JUST GREAT TWO M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 131.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | PERFECT ROCK Led early B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 90.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | BELL OF VICTORY B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 12 | 31.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NOBLE ONE | 27.4% | 3.65 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | FIRE BALL | 12.5% | 8.03 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | H Z TOURBILLON | 8.7% | 11.49 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | SMART BEAUTY | 8.4% | 11.93 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | FORTUNE MASTER | 7.3% | 13.73 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | CHIRON | 7.3% | 13.73 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | BELL OF VICTORY | 6.8% | 14.64 | 12 |
| 8 | 7 | COMPULSORY | 6.6% | 15.24 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | TSUEN WAN GLORY | 5.4% | 18.66 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | GO GO GO | 4.7% | 21.06 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | JUST GREAT TWO | 3.2% | 31.38 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | PERFECT ROCK | 1.8% | 54.72 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 39.5
PLACE
3 16
5 37.5
12 34.5
QUINELLA
3,12 259.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 98
3,12 104.5
5,12 218
FORECAST
3,12 479
TIERCE
3,12,5 4,486
TRIO
3,5,12 1,180
FIRST 4
3,4,5,12 753
QUARTET
3,12,5,4 21,321
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
7/3 612.5
7/12 159.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,11/3,5,12 267,429