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Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FUN ELITE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/2, with BABY CRYSTAL second and LIFELINE EXPRESS third. The 3.1 favourite BABY CRYSTAL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FUN ELITE TT1 0.56.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · T P Yung 4 10.0 1-1/2
2 1 BABY CRYSTAL B1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 3.1 1-1/2
3 6 LIFELINE EXPRESS A Atzeni · J Size 5 57.0 3
4 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 7 40.0 4
5 2 FLYING DRAGON XB K Teetan · C H Yip 3 9.8 4-1/4
6 14 ACE TALENT PC-/H/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 10 37.0 4-1/2
7 7 MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT1 J McDonald · J Richards 6 19.0 5-1/4
8 8 PERFECTO MOMENTS TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting 9 21.0 5-1/2
9 13 MR GOOD VIBES A Badel · D J Hall 8 38.0 5-3/4
10 3 GREENWICH V-/PC1/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 11 3.6 6
11 4 CRAZY TREASURE L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 14.0 6-3/4
12 10 WINNING GOLD H1/TT1 K De Melo · W Y So 14 125.0 7-3/4
13 12 PRINCE CHISWICK XB/CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 7.4 9-3/4
14 9 SPONGE BABE M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 81.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FUN ELITE2. BABY CRYSTAL+1.5L3. LIFELINE EXPRESS+3L4. VALIANT ELEGANCE+4L5. FLYING DRAGON+4.25L6. ACE TALENT+4.5L7. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+5.25L8. PERFECTO MOMENTS+5.5L9. MR GOOD VIBES+5.75L10. GREENWICH+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BABY CRYSTAL (19.9%) finished 2nd — the winner FUN ELITE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BABY CRYSTAL 19.9% 5.03 2
2 7 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 15.2% 6.57 7
3 6 LIFELINE EXPRESS 10.2% 9.82 3
4 3 GREENWICH 8.5% 11.75 10
5 4 CRAZY TREASURE 8.1% 12.27 11
6 2 FLYING DRAGON 8.1% 12.41 5
7 12 PRINCE CHISWICK 6.6% 15.19 13
8 8 PERFECTO MOMENTS 5.4% 18.54 8
9 5 FUN ELITE 4.8% 20.93 1
10 10 WINNING GOLD 4.5% 22.37 12
11 11 VALIANT ELEGANCE 3.1% 31.80 4
12 14 ACE TALENT 2.6% 38.90 6
13 9 SPONGE BABE 1.9% 52.89 14
14 13 MR GOOD VIBES 1.1% 87.81 9
BABY CRYSTALMANYTHANKS FOREVERLIFELINE EXPRESSGREENWICHCRAZY TREASUREFLYING DRAGONPRINCE CHISWICKPERFECTO MOMENTSFUN ELITE — wonWINNING GOLDVALIANT ELEGANCEACE TALENTSPONGE BABEMR GOOD VIBES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 106.5

PLACE

1 16.5

5 27.5

6 137.5

QUINELLA

1,5 175

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 75.5

1,6 270

5,6 620

FORECAST

5,1 508

TIERCE

5,1,6 16,980

TRIO

1,5,6 2,967

FIRST 4

1,5,6,11 14,246

QUARTET

5,1,6,11 300,653

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/1,5,6 190,153

3RD DOUBLE

8/1 79.5

8/5 3,118.5