Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 07:45
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. DIAMOND FLARE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 3, with SPEEDY SMARTIE second and ACA POWER third. The 4.2 favourite LEAN MASTER finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DIAMOND FLARE B 1.08.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 9.8 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | ACA POWER CP A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 4 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | LEAN MASTER B/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 5 | 4.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | JUDY'S GREAT TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 10 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 8 | 12.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | COOL BLUE CP-/B1/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 3 | 5.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | UNIVERSAL PURSUIT XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 13.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | MAN STAR V/TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 12 | 14.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | SHINING FORTUNE P/XB A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 6 | 14.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | RAINBOW DELIGHT P1 A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 7 | 95.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 11 | 24.0 | 18-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | COOL BLUE | 15.9% | 6.29 | 7 |
| 2 | 11 | LEAN MASTER | 15.6% | 6.41 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | JUDY'S GREAT | 12.1% | 8.27 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | ACA POWER | 11.4% | 8.77 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | DIAMOND FLARE | 10.3% | 9.70 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 8.8% | 11.37 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 8.2% | 12.19 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | SHINING FORTUNE | 6.0% | 16.54 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | MAN STAR | 3.7% | 26.98 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | COMPASSION SUPER | 2.7% | 36.54 | 12 |
| 11 | 4 | RAINBOW DELIGHT | 2.7% | 37.10 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | UNIVERSAL PURSUIT | 2.5% | 39.82 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 136
PLACE
6 32
8 20
10 44.5
QUINELLA
6,10 894.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 95
6,10 252
8,10 129.5
FORECAST
10,6 1,580
TIERCE
10,6,8 9,637
TRIO
6,8,10 1,418
FIRST 4
6,8,10,11 1,348
QUARTET
10,6,8,11 45,312
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,8/6,8,10 67,491
5TH DOUBLE
6/6 48.5
6/10 1,288
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,6/2,6,8/Any Combination 33,222