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Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 09:15

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NORTHERN BEACHES, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with CALIFORNIA TOUCH second and HEROIC MASTER third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 NORTHERN BEACHES 0.56.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · W Y So 12 3.7 3/4
2 7 CALIFORNIA TOUCH H/TT C Y Ho · W K Mo 6 51.0 3/4
3 2 HEROIC MASTER CP/TT J McDonald · F C Lor 4 12.0 1-1/4
4 13 METRO WARRIOR B K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 17.0 1-3/4
5 6 CHEVAL VALIANT B-/H-/SR1/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 11 6.3 2
6 12 JOLLY COMPANION XB M L Yeung · K L Man 2 67.0 2-3/4
7 14 MUST GO A Atzeni · J Size 13 29.0 3
8 1 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B H Bowman · P F Yiu 3 17.0 4
9 4 KYEEMA Z Purton · M Newnham 5 12.0 4-1/4
10 11 SOLAR UP B1 M Chadwick · C W Chang 10 46.0 4-1/2
11 8 LUCKY GOR E/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 14 6.7 4-3/4
12 5 SUMMIT CHEERS TT A Badel · D J Hall 1 15.0 7
13 9 KA YING POWER H/B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 43.0 8-1/2
14 3 PACKING BOLE TT C L Chau · C S Shum 7 5.5 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NORTHERN BEACHES2. CALIFORNIA TOUCH+0.75L3. HEROIC MASTER+1.25L4. METRO WARRIOR+1.75L5. CHEVAL VALIANT+2L6. JOLLY COMPANION+2.75L7. MUST GO+3L8. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+4L9. KYEEMA+4.25L10. SOLAR UP+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HEROIC MASTER (16.9%) finished 3rd — the winner NORTHERN BEACHES was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HEROIC MASTER 16.9% 5.90 3
2 3 PACKING BOLE 15.2% 6.59 14
3 5 SUMMIT CHEERS 13.9% 7.20 12
4 10 NORTHERN BEACHES 10.7% 9.32 1
5 4 KYEEMA 9.7% 10.28 9
6 1 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 8.6% 11.67 8
7 6 CHEVAL VALIANT 8.4% 11.95 5
8 8 LUCKY GOR 7.3% 13.73 11
9 11 SOLAR UP 2.2% 44.92 10
10 13 METRO WARRIOR 2.1% 47.39 4
11 14 MUST GO 1.7% 57.32 7
12 12 JOLLY COMPANION 1.7% 60.56 6
13 9 KA YING POWER 0.9% 112.70 13
14 7 CALIFORNIA TOUCH 0.7% 138.72 2
HEROIC MASTERPACKING BOLESUMMIT CHEERSNORTHERN BEACHES — wonKYEEMAPLEASANT ENDEAVORCHEVAL VALIANTLUCKY GORSOLAR UPMETRO WARRIORMUST GOJOLLY COMPANIONKA YING POWERCALIFORNIA TOUCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 37

PLACE

2 35

7 133.5

10 18

QUINELLA

7,10 1,067

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 798

2,10 97.5

7,10 335.5

FORECAST

10,7 2,078

TIERCE

10,7,2 24,180

TRIO

2,7,10 4,732

FIRST 4

2,7,10,13 14,518

QUARTET

10,7,2,13 315,189

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

10/7 185.5

10/10 101.5