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Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER GOLDI, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with TOP SCORER second and PHOENIX LIGHT third. The 2.8 favourite TOP SCORER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SUPER GOLDI 1.09.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 1 5.1 1/2
2 8 TOP SCORER Z Purton · J Size 6 2.8 1/2
3 2 PHOENIX LIGHT B/TT H Bowman · C H Yip 5 10.0 1-1/2
4 4 MR MAESTRO XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 11 16.0 2-1/2
5 1 FORTUNE WARRIOR CP E C W Wong · P C Ng 2 5.5 2-3/4
6 9 NISHIKADO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 39.0 3-1/2
7 5 PINGWU SPARKLE B1/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 7 14.0 3-1/2
8 10 WOODFIRE CHAMP TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 74.0 3-1/2
9 12 STRATHPEFFER B K De Melo · D J Whyte 8 7.0 3-3/4
10 11 ALWAYS AWESOME A Badel · D J Hall 12 94.0 4
11 7 SUPER SIXTY TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 17.0 4-1/4
12 3 GRAND CONQUEROR CP1 L Hewitson · M Newnham 3 130.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER GOLDI2. TOP SCORER+0.5L3. PHOENIX LIGHT+1.5L4. MR MAESTRO+2.5L5. FORTUNE WARRIOR+2.75L6. NISHIKADO+3.5L7. PINGWU SPARKLE+3.5L8. WOODFIRE CHAMP+3.5L9. STRATHPEFFER+3.75L10. ALWAYS AWESOME+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOP SCORER (26.6%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER GOLDI was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 TOP SCORER 26.6% 3.76 2
2 2 PHOENIX LIGHT 14.4% 6.95 3
3 12 STRATHPEFFER 13.7% 7.32 9
4 1 FORTUNE WARRIOR 10.0% 9.97 5
5 7 SUPER SIXTY 8.6% 11.65 11
6 6 SUPER GOLDI 5.7% 17.40 1
7 4 MR MAESTRO 5.2% 19.37 4
8 5 PINGWU SPARKLE 5.1% 19.52 7
9 9 NISHIKADO 4.9% 20.28 6
10 11 ALWAYS AWESOME 3.7% 27.19 10
11 10 WOODFIRE CHAMP 1.4% 71.65 8
12 3 GRAND CONQUEROR 0.7% 149.69 12
TOP SCORERPHOENIX LIGHTSTRATHPEFFERFORTUNE WARRIORSUPER SIXTYSUPER GOLDI — wonMR MAESTROPINGWU SPARKLENISHIKADOALWAYS AWESOMEWOODFIRE CHAMPGRAND CONQUEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 51.5

PLACE

2 26

6 22.5

8 13.5

QUINELLA

6,8 103

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 104

2,8 48

6,8 41

FORECAST

6,8 281

TIERCE

6,8,2 1,619

TRIO

2,6,8 268

FIRST 4

2,4,6,8 929

QUARTET

6,8,2,4 21,656

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/5/6 21,651

8/5/8 3,174

4TH DOUBLE

5/6 744.5

5/8 131.5