Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. XPONENTIAL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with SEASONS WIT second and CHANCHENG PRINCE third. The 2.6 favourite MAJESTIC STAR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.66

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	XPONENTIAL B/TT 1.08.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	3	118 lb	15.0	NOSE
2	2	SEASONS WIT B/TT Z Purton · J Richards	Z Purton	J Richards	2	134 lb	4.3	NOSE
3	3	CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT A Atzeni · K W Lui	A Atzeni	K W Lui	5	131 lb	8.8	3/4
4	4	MAJESTIC STAR TT J McDonald · C S Shum	J McDonald	C S Shum	4	128 lb	2.6	1
5	5	YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	8	126 lb	4.7	3
6	7	CAMPIONE B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz	M F Poon	A S Cruz	6	117 lb	14.0	3-3/4
7	6	COMPUTER PATCH V/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	7	125 lb	15.0	3-3/4
8	1	PING HAI GALAXY A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	1	135 lb	12.0	4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick SEASONS WIT (39.0%) finished 2nd — the winner XPONENTIAL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	SEASONS WIT	39.0%	2.56	2	4.3
2	8	XPONENTIAL	15.0%	6.67	1	15.0
3	4	MAJESTIC STAR	13.3%	7.53	4	2.6
4	5	YOUTHFUL DEAL	12.6%	7.93	5	4.7
5	3	CHANCHENG PRINCE	7.5%	13.30	3	8.8
6	1	PING HAI GALAXY	4.3%	23.15	8	12.0
7	6	COMPUTER PATCH	4.3%	23.25	7	15.0
8	7	CAMPIONE	4.0%	25.29	6	14.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 153.5

PLACE

2 18.5

3 23.5

8 29

QUINELLA

2,8 242

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 57

2,8 74.5

3,8 106

FORECAST

8,2 585

TIERCE

8,2,3 3,549

TRIO

2,3,8 535

FIRST 4

2,3,4,8 229

QUARTET

8,2,3,4 8,756

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/2 34.5

3/8 671

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