Sha Tin · 2023-12-26 · 08:15
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-26 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FALLON, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with CHATEAU second and G LINER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SUPER WISE DRAGON finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FALLON Closed strongly H-/B1/TT 1.35.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 14 | 69.0 | HD |
| 2 | 11 | CHATEAU Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 2 | 9.9 | HD |
| 3 | 14 | G LINER Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 1 | 15.0 | N |
| 4 | 10 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 4 | 8.7 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | ARIEL Led early CP/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 10 | 17.0 | 1/2 |
| 6 | 13 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK B-/H-/TT K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 5 | 29.0 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | DARCI JOY B/TT Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 8 | 8.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 133.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 6 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly V C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 41.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER WISE DRAGON V1/TT J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 7 | 2.4 | 3 |
| 12 | 7 | ROBOT FIGHTER K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 12 | 79.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 6 | LOOKING COOL CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 16.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 5 | IMPERIAL MAGEE SR/XB/TT A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 3 | 9.6 | 52-1/4 |
| — | 0 | WIDE BLUE YONDER · D A Hayes | — | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SUPER WISE DRAGON | 19.3% | 5.19 | 11 |
| 2 | 1 | DARCI JOY | 14.2% | 7.06 | 7 |
| 3 | 14 | G LINER | 8.9% | 11.22 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | ARIEL | 8.9% | 11.29 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | IMPERIAL MAGEE | 8.7% | 11.56 | 14 |
| 6 | 10 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 8.3% | 12.05 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | LOOKING COOL | 7.8% | 12.86 | 13 |
| 8 | 9 | CIRCUIT NINE | 7.5% | 13.33 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | CHATEAU | 5.4% | 18.53 | 2 |
| 10 | 12 | DRAGON PRIDE | 3.7% | 27.16 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 3.5% | 28.66 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | ROBOT FIGHTER | 1.5% | 66.85 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK | 1.3% | 77.94 | 6 |
| 14 | 2 | FALLON | 1.2% | 80.99 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 694
PLACE
2 181
11 26
14 42
QUINELLA
2,11 6,632
QUINELLA PLACE
2,11 1,760.5
2,14 1,846
11,14 192
FORECAST
2,11 11,189
TIERCE
2,11,14 147,809
TRIO
2,11,14 23,452
FIRST 4
2,10,11,14 32,375
QUARTET
2,11,14,10 1,129,711
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
10/2 10,527
10/11 379.5