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Sha Tin · 2024-01-07 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-07 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BEAT HOLLOW, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by N, with SUPER JOY second and ALL IS READY third. The 4.8 favourite SUPER JOY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEAT HOLLOW 1.09.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 6 6.0 N
2 10 SUPER JOY B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 3 4.8 N
3 8 ALL IS READY B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 5.0 1-1/2
4 7 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 17.0 2-3/4
5 6 CHARMING STEED E1/V1/XB1/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 5 9.4 2-3/4
6 1 ISLAND SURPRISE B-/V1/TT H Bowman · K L Man 8 7.8 5-1/2
7 11 COMPULSORY B K Teetan · C W Chang 10 8.5 5-1/2
8 3 MASTER OF ALL TT A Atzeni · W Y So 7 54.0 5-1/2
9 2 PRESTIGE MOOCHI TT K H Chan · C H Yip 1 12.0 6
10 4 VAMOS B K De Melo · D J Hall 9 7.7 7-3/4
9 GENERAL ACE L Hewitson · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAT HOLLOW2. SUPER JOY+0.05L3. ALL IS READY+1.5L4. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+2.75L5. CHARMING STEED+2.75L6. ISLAND SURPRISE+5.5L7. COMPULSORY+5.5L8. MASTER OF ALL+5.5L9. PRESTIGE MOOCHI+6L10. VAMOS+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAT HOLLOW (17.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BEAT HOLLOW 17.5% 5.72 1
2 8 ALL IS READY 16.7% 5.98 3
3 4 VAMOS 16.2% 6.16 10
4 6 CHARMING STEED 13.1% 7.65 5
5 1 ISLAND SURPRISE 10.8% 9.30 6
6 10 SUPER JOY 8.9% 11.23 2
7 2 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 5.8% 17.29 9
8 11 COMPULSORY 5.4% 18.47 7
9 7 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 3.1% 32.72 4
10 3 MASTER OF ALL 2.6% 38.88 8
BEAT HOLLOW — wonALL IS READYVAMOSCHARMING STEEDISLAND SURPRISESUPER JOYPRESTIGE MOOCHICOMPULSORYEIGHT TRIGRAMSMASTER OF ALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 60.5

PLACE

5 23.5

8 17

10 17

QUINELLA

5,10 181.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 66.5

5,10 62

8,10 47

FORECAST

5,10 375

TIERCE

5,10,8 1,368

TRIO

5,8,10 241

FIRST 4

5,7,8,10 909

QUARTET

5,10,8,7 19,419