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Sha Tin · 2024-01-07 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 10 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-07 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FLYING HIGH second and CHEVAL VALIANT third. The 3.2 favourite NORTHERN BEACHES finished 7th.

Result

Official · 0.57.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B 0.57.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · P F Yiu 6 19.0 1/2
2 1 FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 9.7 1/2
3 10 CHEVAL VALIANT SR-/B2/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 9 4.0 1
4 2 O'LINER P/TT H Bowman · T P Yung 3 6.9 2
5 7 NICCONI COUNTY XB1/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 2 11.0 2
6 11 KYRUS DRAGON H/XB A Badel · D J Hall 7 34.0 2-1/4
7 6 NORTHERN BEACHES L Hewitson · W Y So 8 3.2 2-1/4
8 5 RUN RUN COOL PC H Bentley · F C Lor 5 20.0 2-1/2
9 9 CALIFORNIA TOUCH H/TT C Y Ho · W K Mo 1 7.1 6-1/2
10 4 SPARKLING KNIGHT A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 20.0 11-3/4
8 SUMMIT CHEERS B Avdulla · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR2. FLYING HIGH+0.5L3. CHEVAL VALIANT+1L4. O'LINER+2L5. NICCONI COUNTY+2L6. KYRUS DRAGON+2.25L7. NORTHERN BEACHES+2.25L8. RUN RUN COOL+2.5L9. CALIFORNIA TOUCH+6.5L10. SPARKLING KNIGHT+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick NORTHERN BEACHES (27.7%) finished 7th — the winner PLEASANT ENDEAVOR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 NORTHERN BEACHES 27.7% 3.61 7
2 2 O'LINER 20.8% 4.80 4
3 9 CALIFORNIA TOUCH 12.6% 7.96 9
4 10 CHEVAL VALIANT 8.7% 11.53 3
5 1 FLYING HIGH 7.0% 14.21 2
6 7 NICCONI COUNTY 6.4% 15.73 5
7 3 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 6.0% 16.55 1
8 5 RUN RUN COOL 4.0% 25.06 8
9 4 SPARKLING KNIGHT 3.8% 26.60 10
10 11 KYRUS DRAGON 3.1% 32.68 6
NORTHERN BEACHESO'LINERCALIFORNIA TOUCHCHEVAL VALIANTFLYING HIGHNICCONI COUNTYPLEASANT ENDEAVOR — wonRUN RUN COOLSPARKLING KNIGHTKYRUS DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 194.5

PLACE

1 25

3 40.5

10 16

QUINELLA

1,3 935

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 256.5

1,10 77

3,10 107

FORECAST

3,1 2,019

TIERCE

3,1,10 8,465

TRIO

1,3,10 887

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 1,388

QUARTET

3,1,10,2 43,601

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/12/1 469

2/12/3 10,989

4TH DOUBLE

12/1 122

12/3 1,534