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Sha Tin · 2024-01-07 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-07 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. AORAKI SUMMIT, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by F C Lor, won by 3-1/4, with WINNING DATA second and CALIFORNIATOTALITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 AORAKI SUMMIT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · F C Lor 5 3.2 3-1/4
2 4 WINNING DATA Closed strongly B K Teetan · P F Yiu 12 3.6 3-1/4
3 5 CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 27.0 3-3/4
4 7 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 4 22.0 5
5 10 KASI FARASI B2 L Hewitson · C H Yip 2 8.6 5-1/4
6 6 ENNEA FORTUNE TT A Badel · C H Yip 3 6.2 5-3/4
7 3 SOLID SHALAA Closed strongly TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 11 6.2 7-1/2
8 1 SKY FOREVER Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 8 22.0 8
9 11 KEEN UNITY Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 13 85.0 9-1/4
10 13 ALWAYS AWESOME Closed strongly K De Melo · D J Hall 9 31.0 10-1/2
11 14 COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly H-/P-/TT- H T Mo · J Richards 14 231.0 11-1/2
12 9 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly XB/TT1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 103.0 11-3/4
13 12 GALLANT GOODY B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 170.0 12-3/4
14 8 V LOVE YOU Led early TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 1 147.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AORAKI SUMMIT2. WINNING DATA+3.25L3. CALIFORNIATOTALITY+3.75L4. TAKE ACTION+5L5. KASI FARASI+5.25L6. ENNEA FORTUNE+5.75L7. SOLID SHALAA+7.5L8. SKY FOREVER+8L9. KEEN UNITY+9.25L10. ALWAYS AWESOME+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick WINNING DATA (32.5%) finished 2nd — the winner AORAKI SUMMIT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 WINNING DATA 32.5% 3.08 2
2 3 SOLID SHALAA 14.8% 6.76 7
3 2 AORAKI SUMMIT 7.9% 12.60 1
4 7 TAKE ACTION 7.6% 13.08 4
5 6 ENNEA FORTUNE 7.3% 13.73 6
6 10 KASI FARASI 6.2% 16.02 5
7 11 KEEN UNITY 6.2% 16.25 9
8 1 SKY FOREVER 5.3% 19.04 8
9 5 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 3.8% 26.45 3
10 9 WINNING SEVEN 3.2% 31.27 12
11 13 ALWAYS AWESOME 2.2% 44.68 10
12 8 V LOVE YOU 1.2% 84.95 14
13 14 COURIER MAGIC 1.0% 101.96 11
14 12 GALLANT GOODY 0.8% 120.15 13
WINNING DATASOLID SHALAAAORAKI SUMMIT — wonTAKE ACTIONENNEA FORTUNEKASI FARASIKEEN UNITYSKY FOREVERCALIFORNIATOTALITYWINNING SEVENALWAYS AWESOMEV LOVE YOUCOURIER MAGICGALLANT GOODY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 32

PLACE

2 15.5

4 16

5 61

QUINELLA

2,4 85

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 33.5

2,5 133

4,5 145.5

FORECAST

2,4 182

TIERCE

2,4,5 2,051

TRIO

2,4,5 342

FIRST 4

2,4,5,7 1,550

QUARTET

2,4,5,7 23,983

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/2 155

1/4 22