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Sha Tin · 2024-01-07 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAST BUCK, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Size, won by 2-3/4, with DIAMOND FLARE second and COLOURFUL PRINCE third. The 2.7 favourite DIAMOND FLARE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FAST BUCK P-/PC1 1.08.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Size 12 10.0 2-3/4
2 4 DIAMOND FLARE B Y L Chung · M Newnham 6 2.7 2-3/4
3 3 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 2 12.0 3
4 10 REGENT GLORY K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 9.1 3
5 12 DAILY TROPHY TT A Badel · C Fownes 8 6.9 3
6 8 PANDA LEGEND TT C Y Ho · W Y So 11 18.0 4
7 5 BRAVE WITNESS TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 5 21.0 7-1/4
8 11 LEAN MASTER B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 3 12.0 7-1/2
9 2 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT E C W Wong · K L Man 1 10.0 8-1/4
10 7 TELECOM SPEED M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 7 20.0 12-1/4
11 9 PATCH OF WATCH TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 67.0 14
12 1 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 10 14.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAST BUCK2. DIAMOND FLARE+2.75L3. COLOURFUL PRINCE+3L4. REGENT GLORY+3L5. DAILY TROPHY+3L6. PANDA LEGEND+4L7. BRAVE WITNESS+7.25L8. LEAN MASTER+7.5L9. MAGIC SUPREME+8.25L10. TELECOM SPEED+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DIAMOND FLARE (16.0%) finished 2nd — the winner FAST BUCK was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 DIAMOND FLARE 16.0% 6.26 2
2 10 REGENT GLORY 15.6% 6.40 4
3 3 COLOURFUL PRINCE 9.9% 10.09 3
4 2 MAGIC SUPREME 9.8% 10.20 9
5 5 BRAVE WITNESS 8.9% 11.27 7
6 12 DAILY TROPHY 8.0% 12.45 5
7 6 FAST BUCK 8.0% 12.50 1
8 11 LEAN MASTER 7.7% 12.97 8
9 7 TELECOM SPEED 6.8% 14.75 10
10 1 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 4.7% 21.40 12
11 8 PANDA LEGEND 3.7% 27.36 6
12 9 PATCH OF WATCH 1.0% 103.54 11
DIAMOND FLAREREGENT GLORYCOLOURFUL PRINCEMAGIC SUPREMEBRAVE WITNESSDAILY TROPHYFAST BUCK — wonLEAN MASTERTELECOM SPEEDEVERYONE'S VICTORYPANDA LEGENDPATCH OF WATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 107.5

PLACE

3 35

4 18.5

6 31.5

QUINELLA

4,6 193

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 105.5

3,6 234

4,6 76.5

FORECAST

6,4 460

TIERCE

6,4,3 6,099

TRIO

3,4,6 1,039

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 1,552

QUARTET

6,4,3,10 50,782

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/3,4,6 107,834

5TH DOUBLE

3/4 172

3/6 2,162.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

9,12,14/1,3,10/Any Combination 43,715