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Sha Tin · 2024-01-07 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-07 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CAPITAL DELIGHT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with GOOD BUDDY second and MARK THE MOMENT third. The 2.8 favourite CALL ME DANDY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CAPITAL DELIGHT TT 1.08.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 12.0 HD
2 8 GOOD BUDDY B1/TT1 A Badel · D J Hall 9 12.0 HD
3 9 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 12 9.9 3/4
4 11 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 37.0 1
5 1 LIGHTNING BOLT TT H Bowman · C S Shum 1 14.0 1-1/4
6 6 CALL ME DANDY B/XB Y L Chung · K W Lui 2 2.8 1-1/4
7 5 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 5 4.5 1-1/2
8 3 TORONADO PHANTOM P/TT A Atzeni · J Size 3 9.5 2-1/2
9 2 LUCKY EIGHT B K De Melo · P F Yiu 6 11.0 3
10 7 WINGS OF WAR B-/PC1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 8 14.0 5
11 10 MIGHTY ARMOUR B-/H-/PC1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 11 182.0 9-3/4
12 12 THE GREAT MASTER XB-/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 10 101.0 23-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAPITAL DELIGHT2. GOOD BUDDY+0.2L3. MARK THE MOMENT+0.75L4. MONTA FRUTTA+1L5. LIGHTNING BOLT+1.25L6. CALL ME DANDY+1.25L7. SELF IMPROVEMENT+1.5L8. TORONADO PHANTOM+2.5L9. LUCKY EIGHT+3L10. WINGS OF WAR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CALL ME DANDY (20.4%) finished 6th — the winner CAPITAL DELIGHT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 CALL ME DANDY 20.4% 4.89 6
2 3 TORONADO PHANTOM 13.6% 7.34 8
3 1 LIGHTNING BOLT 11.7% 8.55 5
4 8 GOOD BUDDY 10.4% 9.57 2
5 5 SELF IMPROVEMENT 9.2% 10.93 7
6 4 CAPITAL DELIGHT 8.3% 12.02 1
7 2 LUCKY EIGHT 8.3% 12.08 9
8 9 MARK THE MOMENT 8.0% 12.45 3
9 7 WINGS OF WAR 4.5% 22.26 10
10 11 MONTA FRUTTA 4.0% 25.30 4
11 10 MIGHTY ARMOUR 0.9% 113.11 11
12 12 THE GREAT MASTER 0.7% 151.01 12
CALL ME DANDYTORONADO PHANTOMLIGHTNING BOLTGOOD BUDDYSELF IMPROVEMENTCAPITAL DELIGHT — wonLUCKY EIGHTMARK THE MOMENTWINGS OF WARMONTA FRUTTAMIGHTY ARMOURTHE GREAT MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 120

PLACE

4 40

8 36.5

9 35

QUINELLA

4,8 761.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 215.5

4,9 253.5

8,9 173.5

FORECAST

4,8 1,687

TIERCE

4,8,9 13,698

TRIO

4,8,9 2,622

FIRST 4

4,8,9,11 14,553

QUARTET

4,8,9,11 235,177

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,9/4,8,9 190,042

7TH DOUBLE

9/4 1,858.5

9/8 489.5