Sha Tin · 2024-01-07 · 08:10

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-07 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WHIZZ KID, ridden by H Bentley and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with INVINCIBLE SAGE second and PACKING TREADMILL third. The 4.1 favourite VICTOR THE WINNER finished 7th.

Result

Official · 0.56.86

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	WHIZZ KID B-/V1/TT 0.56.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · A S Cruz	H Bentley	A S Cruz	2	115 lb	25.0	1
2	8	INVINCIBLE SAGE A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	1	115 lb	4.9	1
3	4	PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	7	117 lb	4.8	3
4	10	WE ARE HERO V/TT K De Melo · K L Man	K De Melo	K L Man	4	117 lb	35.0	3
5	3	DUKE WAI PC K Teetan · P C Ng	K Teetan	P C Ng	8	128 lb	6.9	3
6	2	SUPER WEALTHY SR-/V1/XB2/TT- A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	9	129 lb	22.0	3-1/4
7	1	VICTOR THE WINNER TT H Bowman · C S Shum	H Bowman	C S Shum	3	135 lb	4.1	3-1/2
8	6	SEASONS WIT B/TT M Chadwick · J Richards	M Chadwick	J Richards	5	116 lb	11.0	4-3/4
9	7	FLYING ACE B M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	6	115 lb	4.6	5
—	5	KURPANY Y L Chung · C Fownes	Y L Chung	C Fownes	—	115 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick INVINCIBLE SAGE (26.0%) finished 2nd — the winner WHIZZ KID was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	INVINCIBLE SAGE	26.0%	3.85	2	4.9
2	1	VICTOR THE WINNER	20.8%	4.80	7	4.1
3	4	PACKING TREADMILL	13.0%	7.71	3	4.8
4	7	FLYING ACE	11.5%	8.67	9	4.6
5	6	SEASONS WIT	8.8%	11.40	8	11.0
6	9	WHIZZ KID	6.4%	15.52	1	25.0
7	3	DUKE WAI	5.9%	16.96	5	6.9
8	2	SUPER WEALTHY	4.5%	22.29	6	22.0
9	10	WE ARE HERO	3.1%	32.22	4	35.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 253.5

PLACE

4 16.5

8 18.5

9 52

QUINELLA

8,9 586.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 51.5

4,9 169

8,9 154

FORECAST

9,8 1,458

TIERCE

9,8,4 7,438

TRIO

4,8,9 760

FIRST 4

4,8,9,10 2,570

QUARTET

9,8,4,10 70,222

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

6/8 115.5

6/9 3,242.5

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