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Sha Tin · 2024-01-13 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-13 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TSUEN WAN GLORY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with SMART BEAUTY second and DIAMOND DIAMOND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite DRAGON DELIGHT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.23.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 TSUEN WAN GLORY Closed strongly H/TT 1.23.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 5 7.2 1/2
2 14 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 6.2 1/2
3 1 DIAMOND DIAMOND Closed strongly B2/TT2 L Hewitson · T P Yung 9 16.0 2-1/4
4 5 FIRE BALL Closed strongly CP Z Purton · C H Yip 12 5.3 2-1/2
5 2 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly H Bowman · D A Hayes 6 4.2 3
6 8 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So 4 22.0 3-1/4
7 9 BRILLIANT PIONEER Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 8 5.6 4-1/2
8 6 DASHING GLORY XB-/B/TT2 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 46.0 5-1/4
9 7 GREAT DAYS CP-/XB/H1/P1 A Hamelin · P C Ng 10 20.0 5-1/2
10 3 DARCI LEGEND Closed strongly XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 13 39.0 6
11 10 EAGLE RUN CP/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 14 34.0 7
12 12 SUPER HORNET Led early PC-/XB/B2/TT M F Poon · J Richards 1 29.0 10-3/4
13 11 NOIR RIDER B-/XB K De Melo · C W Chang 7 44.0 10-3/4
14 4 TACTICAL COMMAND CP1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 39.0 26-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TSUEN WAN GLORY2. SMART BEAUTY+0.5L3. DIAMOND DIAMOND+2.25L4. FIRE BALL+2.5L5. DRAGON DELIGHT+3L6. COPARTNER ERA+3.25L7. BRILLIANT PIONEER+4.5L8. DASHING GLORY+5.25L9. GREAT DAYS+5.5L10. DARCI LEGEND+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DRAGON DELIGHT (14.3%) finished 5th — the winner TSUEN WAN GLORY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 DRAGON DELIGHT 14.3% 6.97 5
2 5 FIRE BALL 12.6% 7.91 4
3 9 BRILLIANT PIONEER 11.3% 8.84 7
4 14 SMART BEAUTY 8.6% 11.69 2
5 13 TSUEN WAN GLORY 8.2% 12.25 1
6 8 COPARTNER ERA 6.7% 14.82 6
7 10 EAGLE RUN 6.2% 16.15 11
8 1 DIAMOND DIAMOND 6.1% 16.50 3
9 12 SUPER HORNET 5.9% 16.88 12
10 7 GREAT DAYS 5.5% 18.06 9
11 4 TACTICAL COMMAND 4.9% 20.51 14
12 11 NOIR RIDER 4.0% 25.04 13
13 6 DASHING GLORY 3.0% 33.80 8
14 3 DARCI LEGEND 2.7% 36.96 10
DRAGON DELIGHTFIRE BALLBRILLIANT PIONEERSMART BEAUTYTSUEN WAN GLORY — wonCOPARTNER ERAEAGLE RUNDIAMOND DIAMONDSUPER HORNETGREAT DAYSTACTICAL COMMANDNOIR RIDERDASHING GLORYDARCI LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 72

PLACE

1 48

13 24

14 20.5

QUINELLA

13,14 183

QUINELLA PLACE

1,13 185

1,14 161.5

13,14 58.5

FORECAST

13,14 390

TIERCE

13,14,1 4,517

TRIO

1,13,14 855

FIRST 4

1,5,13,14 1,013

QUARTET

13,14,1,5 22,324