Sha Tin · 2024-01-13 · 08:10

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-13 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALAXY PATCH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with GUMMY GUMMY second and LUCKY ENCOUNTER third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.68

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	GALAXY PATCH B 1.08.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng	K Teetan	P C Ng	5	123 lb	1.2	1-1/2
2	8	GUMMY GUMMY B L Hewitson · T P Yung	L Hewitson	T P Yung	4	119 lb	21.0	1-1/2
3	7	LUCKY ENCOUNTER H1 A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	8	120 lb	7.9	4-1/2
4	5	BUNDLE OF CHARM B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	2	123 lb	9.0	4-3/4
5	1	PING HAI GALAXY H Bowman · J Size	H Bowman	J Size	3	135 lb	40.0	5-1/4
6	3	KEEFY B1/TT- Y L Chung · F C Lor	Y L Chung	F C Lor	1	123 lb	39.0	6-1/4
7	9	WINNING ICEY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	6	119 lb	27.0	6-3/4
8	4	CARROLL STREET SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte	H Bentley	D J Whyte	7	124 lb	53.0	7
9	2	REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	9	131 lb	55.0	7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick GALAXY PATCH (41.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	GALAXY PATCH	41.0%	2.44	1	1.2
2	7	LUCKY ENCOUNTER	23.9%	4.18	3	7.9
3	8	GUMMY GUMMY	12.0%	8.34	2	21.0
4	5	BUNDLE OF CHARM	5.1%	19.51	4	9.0
5	9	WINNING ICEY	5.0%	20.13	7	27.0
6	4	CARROLL STREET	4.6%	21.66	8	53.0
7	1	PING HAI GALAXY	3.9%	25.39	5	40.0
8	3	KEEFY	3.0%	32.94	6	39.0
9	2	REWARDING TOGETHER	1.4%	69.42	9	55.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 12.5

PLACE

6 10.5

7 15

8 30.5

QUINELLA

6,8 79

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 17.5

6,8 31.5

7,8 88.5

FORECAST

6,8 107

TIERCE

6,8,7 370

TRIO

6,7,8 124

FIRST 4

5,6,7,8 77

QUARTET

6,8,7,5 996

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/6 151

1/8 351.5

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